Shumpty’s Punt: Best bets this weekend

It is another weekend and there is again a truck load of sport on the TV to watch. Here are my best bets this weekend:

Horse Racing:

Doomben

Race 3 Number 1: Double Impact (win) ($3.10)
Race 8 Number 1: Bribie (e/w) ($15.00/$4.40)

Rosehill

Race 7 Number 4: Sacred Flyer ($2.80)

Sports Multi

Leg 1: Baltimore Orioles to cover the line (-1.5 runs) against the Seattle Mariners in MLB ($2.19)

Leg 2: Detriot Tigers to cover the line (-1.5 runs) against the Chicago White Sox in MLB ($1.88)

Leg 3: The Chiefs to defeat the Brumbies with the margin 1-12 in the Super Rugby Grand Final ($2.37)

Leg 4: Gold Coast Titans to cover the line (-4.0 points) against the Wests Tigers in the NRL ($1.92)

This multi will pay $18.73 for each dollar invested.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

All prices are courtesy of sportsbet.com.au and are correct at the time of writing.

Shumpty’s Punt: the weekend multi and a few horses

A very unsuccessful weekend on the punt with only one collect however I have run the ruler over the form lines again this weekend and have come up with another 4 leg multi that I think is looking the goods as well as four bets on the horses for the weekend. As always: please bet responsibly and only gamble what you can afford to spend. All odds are courtsey of sportsbet.com.au.

Horse Racing:

Flemington Race 7: Number 1 Broken (each way) ($8.50/$2.70)

Rosehill Race 6: Number 1 Mic Mac (win) ($5.50)

Eagle Farm Race 3: Number 1 Double Impact (each way) ($7.00/2.15)

Eagle Farm Race 7: Number 5 Shafeeq (each way) ($5.00/$1.90)

Sports Multi:

Leg 1: Detriot Tigers to defeat the Kansas City Royals in the MLB ($1.70)

Leg 2: Collingwood to defeat the Gold Coast Suns by 40 or more points in the AFL ($2.40)

Leg 3: Canberra Raiders to defeat the Parramatta Eels by more than 13 points in the NRL ($1.45)

Leg 4: Brumbies to defeat the Cheetahs covering the line (-8.5 points) in the Super Rugby ($1.92)

This multi will return $11.35 for every dollar expended.

Have a great weekend watching the plethora of sport that is on offer. Enjoy!

Kurtley Beale: can I have his employment contract? Or that of any “sportstar” for that matter?

I have watched with a mix of astonishment and bemusement at the latest round of drama that seems to follow Australian Rugby Union player Kurtley Beale wherever he goes. For those who missed the drama of the week was Beale and is oft partner in crime, James O’Connor, being caught at a hamburger restaurant at 4am in the aftermath of the Melbourne Rebels’ defeat by the British and Irish Lions on Tuesday night. There was, apparently, no alcohol involved but they were still out eating a hamburger at 4am four days before they were due to play in a test match.

Kurtley Beales other indiscretions have been well documented but are worth rementioning: an assault charge that was settled at mediation, punching two of his (now former) teammates whilst on tour with his (also now former) Super Rugby franchise and then a breach of strict alcohol rules are the known behavioural issues that have faced Beale in the last 18 months. I am all for people being given second chances and now that Beale is seemingly on his fifth chance with the ARU I have had a moment of pause to consider this question: if Beale was employed by anyone other than the Australian Rugby Union would he still be employed?

I have already written in an earlier blog about the special treatment received (having both positive and negative impacts on them) in the context of poor behaviour. I have also written about the presumption of innocence and how important it is to remember that presumption in the context of the regular imbroglios sports stars seem to find themselves presently.

All that said, I think it is pretty obvious that the answer to the question posed in the preceding is a resounding “NO”. Let’s put Beale’s conduct in the context of someone who works in a professional context. I am happy to use myself as the guinea pig here: I work for a large firm in the city. My working hours are malleable but are generally between 7:45am and 6:30pm with a couple of days of work on weekends a month the norm. I have a team of 11 people that work for me and sit in a broader team of about 70 people. I am bound by a contract of employment with my employer that regulates my conduct during work hours and also, as is standard, requires me to follow the lawful directions of my employer.

Starting then with the obvious, I can never recall any occasion during my 15 year career in the work force where I have had moment to be out until 4am and then stop to grab a burger on a work night? Perhaps on the way to work before a large mediation or if I have a heap of work on maybe but not because I felt like going out and meeting up with some mates. How could any professional function in their job after, obviously, no sleep the night before.

The assault charge is a difficult one: I am fairly sure that my employer, or any employer in the professional work force, would be extremely displeased with an employee being charged with assault. I am unsure as to whether such a scenario would be grounds for immediate dismissal but I am pretty sure the said employee would be at least given a formal warning.

Then we turn to the combination of punching a fellow team mate and then ignoring a direction not to drink: can anyone think of any context in which an employee in a professional context would survive with his or her job intact after having a drunken brawl with two of his / her colleagues? I am pretty sure if I punched one of my fellow directors and one of the partners (given that G Delve was captain of the team at the time) on a boozy night out I would not be receiving just a warning: my employment would be terminated. If, however, I did survive and receive a warning on the condition that my employment would continue on the proviso that I not break the team rules again then surely breaking said rules would mean that I would be terminated and have to find a new job wouldn’t it? I have no doubt it would.

Sportstars are regularly crying that we (being the fans and the media) do not “understand how much pressure they are under”. Forgive me for not giving any sympathy: after all said sportstars are paid to play sport. The other regular refrain from sportstars and their apologists are that they are held to a higher standard because of the “celebrity” and that is unfair. With all due respect to those who push that argument: how can you say that when, in fact, it would appear based the available evidence that sportstars are held to a lower standard by their employers than anyone else who had a professional job in this country?

My gripe here is not with Kurtley Beale and his mate O’Connor: I am not surprised that they were caught out (again). My gripe is with the spinelessness of their employers. Actually, it is worth noting that my gripe is not just with the ARU at this juncture because afterall we have, in recent times also had the displeasure of seeing the following conduct rewarded with continued employment (by the governing body of the game):

1. Semi-regular abuse of opposing players, abuse of journalists doing their job and punching an opposing player (David Warner); and
2. Complete and open disregard for the authority of one’s employer, failing to follow a direction not to drink alcohol before training and sending a photographic message to one’s coach of your contempt for him (Josh Dugan).

The governing bodies of the sports we love are doing themselves and those that they employ who do the right thing a disservice by not handling these matters like any other employer would. How will players who behave badly or, indeed, just stupidly ever learn their lesson if they are not punished as someone in everyday life would be? A semi-regular refrain from those in sport is that they just want to be treated like regular every day people but they can not have their metaphorical cake and eat it to; viz., if they want to be treated like everyone else they also must be treated like everyone else when it comes to their employment and NOT with the special treatment they seem to presently receive.

I am not talking about forcing people out of sport because they make a mistake here and I am a massive believer of second chances in life. Getting a second chance though comes with it learning from ones mistakes and I question how someone receiving the special treatment when it comes to appointment that sportstars do will ever learn from their mistakes? Getting caught out at 4am 4 days before a test match indicates that Kurtley Beale has not learned his lesson.

All that said: how good would it be to be on the same sort of contract that Beale and others must be on which entitles them to, seemingly, do whatever they want whenever they want without thought to the consequences? I wonder where I can get one of them?

Shumpty’s Punt: 22 / 23 June 2013

I know I said that I was hanging up the punting boots after a run of multi bets that had, simply put, done my head in and been rendered nugatory in the first leg. I have given some thought to having a couple of bets this weekend for the first time in a while and have come up with a couple of bets at Eagle Farm and a 4 leg multi that I reckon are well placed to get punters a return.

Horse Racing

Eagle Farm Race 6: Rothera

Eagle Farm Race 7: Red Tracer

Sports Multi

Leg 1: New Zealand All Blacks to cover the line (-19.5 points) against France at $1.90.

Leg 2: Canberra Raiders to cover the line (-8.0 points) against Wests Tigers at $1.92.

Leg 3: British and Irish Lions to cover the line (-3.5 points) against Australia at $1.92.

Leg 4: Fremantle Dockers to defeat North Melbourne with the margin 1 – 39 points at $2.00.

This multi will pay $14.00 for every dollar invested.

I am aware that I am betting against the Wallabies here and it goes against everything my heart is saying but, as I wrote yesterday, I think the Wallabies are massively underdone for this test match.

Good luck and good punting all and, as always, please gamble responsibly.

The other AFL story this week: the new Queensland powerhouse?

The biggest story in AFL this week has revolved around the vilification of one of the marquee players of the game. I do not want to get into that: enough has been written and said and whilst I am very concerned at the way it has been handled by the AFL there is another story about AFL that I want to comment on. I will quote the CEO of the AFL:

“By the end of the year, that [Queensland’s] will the second highest participation rate in Australia, higher than WA or South Australia”.

That is right folks: AFL is apparently a big business in Queensland and that is even when compared to rugby league. These statistics don’t lie: rugby league reports that in 2012 it had 170,027 active participants whilst the AFL reports that it had 155,000 such participants. Additionally, AFL is working off the back of growth in participation numbers of 9% per annum. That, in anyone’s language, is exceptionally good growth.

I should be very clear here: I am more a fan of cricket and rugby union rather than rugby league or AFL. What I find interesting about those numbers is the significant shift in the demographic of the players of sport in Queensland. Times certainly have changed from when I was a kid running around sports fields playing sport. Some 25 years ago I did not know that one could play AFL in Queensland and I would be astonished if any young bloke growing up in my generation thought any different. AFL was not the played sport back then: you played rugby league in the winter or cricket in the summer and that was pretty much it.

So why am I writing about this? Two reasons:

1. I do not believe the AFL and Brisbane Lions in particular have received enough kudos for the work they have done to develop the game in this state; and
2. It has to be stated that rugby league has done an equally poor job.

Upon the Lions winning their brace of three premierships they have leveraged off their massive up lift in membership and attendances at games to educate the people of Queensland about the game. The last of those victories was a decade ago and yet the fans continue to flock to the Gabba in droves to watch their team. What I think the Lions and the AFL have done particularly well is that they have won over the parents of sports playing kids.

Obviously one of the ways in which they have done this is that they have publicised the game of AFL as an essentially non-contact alternative to rugby league for children. Also, it is obvious when one goes to the games (I have attended recently at the Gabba as well on the Gold Coast) that attendance at the games is certainly kid friendly. Every game I have been too I have been impressed with number of children in attendance and engaged in the game.

The rugby league authorities have not done enough, conversely, in my view to make attendance at games kid friendly. This is an entirely personal view based solely on my attendances at games. The test that I have applied in coming to this conclusion is whether I would be happy to take my nephews or kids of my mates to a game and, indeed, have I actually done so? This year I have taken my nephews / kids of my mates to AFL and rugby union games but I have always been hesitant about taking them to a rugby league game. The vibe is just different: I cannot explain it. I guess I am going to be less likely to take young kids to a sporting contest that I myself in the past have felt personally threatened for my safety being in the crowd and that has only ever happened at rugby league games.

I am not at all here casting negative aspersions on rugby league fans: I am not. What I am saying is that if there is one area in which the NRL and the other rugby league authorities including the clubs have let themselves down it is in making the game family friendly. Of course parents, particularly mothers, are going to prefer their children to play a game that they feel comfortable taking them to watch.

The other area in which I think the NRL has let itself down is in its traditional heartland. Whilst kids are still playing rugby league in, for example, Ipswich and Toowoomba, it is entirely obvious that the AFL is making inroads in both places given, for example, the involvement of a number of junior teams from the Ipswich area in the greater Brisbane junior AFL competitions. A NRL team in either centre or even in Central Queensland would go a long way to pause those inroads being made by the AFL.

The rugby league authorities need to lift their game in Queensland: there is no escaping that. Equally, I for one am pleased that kids these days have a freedom of choice when it comes to sports they play. The fact that those kids have that choice is all to the credit of the AFL. I am waiting with baited breath for a similar report to come out next year on 2013 participation numbers in sport. I am fairly certain that the AFL will have pushed passed the rugby league to be the most popular oval ball sport in Queensland. Who ever thought they would see that day? I, for one, certainly did not!

I am a rugby league fan: but only just after the 2013 draw announcement

If you did not know this already, let me be clear: I am a Canberra Raiders fan and I always will be a Canberra Raiders fan. I am also a Queenslander and nothing gives me more joy than watching Queensland defeat those who reside from below the Tweed. I am not, however, a fan of the NRL and have not been for many years.

I was lost to rugby league during the Super League wars and went from watching just about every game on free to air TV at the time to only watching my beloved Raiders and the State of Origin games. Rugby League test matches do nothing for me and I can’t say I have watched one in the last 3 years.

I was waiting with baited breath for the introduction of the ALRC to the game in the hope of some encouragement arising from their management of the game that might pull me back into the fray as a fully fledged NRL fan. To say that they have not done so would be an understatement.

Before we even get to my disgust with the draw, two other issues need to be mentioned in passing: the outlawing of the shoulder charge and the change in venue for the 2013 State of Origin series.

Rugby league is a tough game played by hard men: it involves body contact and one only needs to see the advertisements for the game run by Channel 9 and Foxsports to see that it is that one on one contact that sells the game. Fans of the game do not remember and do not discuss around the water cooler a tackle around the waist; they do however exclaim “did you see that big hit!”. I can not understand what the ALRC are trying to achieve by banning a form of tackle that has been part of the game since it started.

The State of Origin was meant to held with two games to be held in Brisbane this year. The commercial imperatives that relate to this decision I understand and frankly I could not be happier that Queensland will win their 8th series in a row at Lang Park in the second game. Will make the 3rd game a fizzer won’t it?

My major problem and why I can feel no attachment to the game is the way the ARLC treat their fans. There is no more clearer example of this than with the 2013 draw. The draw put out recently is frankly a travesty if you are a fan of any team other than Brisbane, Bulldogs, Titans or West Tigers. As a Canberra Raiders fan I have taken some time to consider when Canberra Raiders fans might get to see their team on free to air TV during the first 20 rounds of the season and it does not make for pretty reading. That is because, from the look of the draw, during the first 20 rounds of the season the Canberra Raiders will appear only once on Free to Air television. To put that in context: Channel 9 will have the rights to 60 games during that period and only once will the Canberra Raiders play in the 7:45pm Friday night or 3pm Sunday afternoon slots that get shown on Channel 9.

Mark your calendars those of you without Foxtel who follow Canberra because the only chance your going to get to see your team play on Channel 9 will be on 28 June against South Sydney. That is of course unless you go to the games or buy Foxtel. This is the way the ALRC have treated a team that came 6th on the table last year and made the second week of the finals.

It is not good for the fans. It is not good for the sponsors of the Canberra Raiders. It is not good for the game.

This fact has raised in my mind a broader question: is it just the Raiders that the ALRC is happy to ignore or are their other teams in the same boat?

I concede that I understand some of the commercial imperatives that sit behind Channel 9 showing the Broncos 14 times and I can understand showing the grand finalist Bulldogs 14 times. The problem though with scheduling is clearly broader than just a problem with the Raiders when you consider that the premiers, the Melbourne Storm, will only be seen on free to air TV 7 times in the first 20 rounds of the season whilst other teams that made the top 8 like the Sea Eagles (6 times), the Sharks (4 times) and the Cowboys (5 times) also receive only limited airplay.

Paradoxically, being a non-performing team does not seem to effect your exposure to the free to air television audience with the West Tigers (10th in 2012) to be seen on free to air TV 11 times.

This is a game built around its fans and the entertainment given to those fans. However it is clear that for the ALRC some fans mean more than others.

Now I know many readers will just consider this to be a whinge of disenfranchised fan looking for an outlet and part they will be right. The fact is though that I am sure I am not alone as a fan of a rugby league club who is not, in fact, a fan of the game any more. Am I the only one who now only watches my team play? Am I alone in only watching the Channel 9 coverage when my team plays?

This is obviously an issue for the grassroots rugby league fan base but it does not appear to be across the ALRC’s radar. If it is on said radar then clearly they have just been blinded by the wad of money coming from David Gyngell. Until the voices of the fans are heard I can’t say I expect to return to the fold as a fully fledged rugby league fan. This is something that saddens me because some of my favourite memories as child are of sitting with my dad watching Friday night football and talking to him and my mates in anticipation of the games ahead.

And with that there is nothing else really to say except go the mighty Raiders and bring on Super 15 season.