Category Archives: Shumpty’s Punt

Shumpty’s Punt: the weekly multi

July 20, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

Well last week was a bit of a disaster for multi followers: we just couldn’t catch a break with some of the upsets that arose. Following the mantra that when you fail the best thing to do is to try again and this week I am again tipping a five leg multi that I expect will lead to a good payout for followers.

It is a massive weekend in sport again and the multi starts tonight with the blockbuster at Etihad Stadium between the Geelong Cats and the Essendon Bombers. The Cats come into this fixture after being belted last week by Collingwood and their key forward is struggling with the kicking yips at the moment. They are also missing Jimmy Bartel through suspension. The Bombers have been one of the form teams in the competition so far and seem to have had the tactical measure of the Cats in recent seasons that lead to a four point victory in the corresponding game last season. To me the Bombers are a young team on the rise while the Cats are coming to the end of a period of dominance (if they lose this game this will represent the first time they have lost 6 games in a season since 2006). I am tipping the Bombers to win this one in the close one and cover the very short line of -3.5 points.

Leg 1: Bombers to cover the line (-3.5 points) against Geelong at $1.92

Our second leg comes from across the Tasman on Saturday afternoon where the New Zealand Warriors host the Newcastle Knights. The Warriors close loss last week to the Broncos saw them drop out of the top 8. They won all of the key statistical categories in that game however so they ought take some confidence out of that. Konrad Hurrell returns to the Warriors lineup for this fixture. The Knights have been in moderately poor form this year but have won three of the past four days and welcome back Neville Costigan this week. One of the highlights of this match will be the battle of the wingers in Manu Vatuvei and Akuila Uate and, frankly, the team with the winger that makes the least mistakes may will win this game. The Warriors have made Mt Smart Stadium a fortress in recent times winning ten of their last twelve fixtures and I think this will be a difficult one of the Knights to win despite their recent excellent form. That being the case I am tipping the Warrior to win this game and cover the line.

Leg 2: Warriors to cover the line (-10.0 points) against the Knights at $1.90

The third leg of this weekend’s multi comes from the South Island of New Zealand and more particularly the city of Christchurch where the Crusaders host the Bulls in the first of two Super 15 Qualifying Finals. In my preview of the weekend’s Super 15 action on the excellent pinkrugby.com I tipped the Crusaders to win by 11 and I am sticking to this tip for the multi. That means that I expect the Crusaders to cover the line of -9.5 here.

Leg 3: Crusaders to cover the line (-9.5 points) against the Bulls at $1.92

Super 15 rugby is also the focus of the 4th leg of the multi. We return back to the other side of the ditch for the second qualifying final at Lang Park between the Reds and the Sharks. Again, I refer follows to my preview of this fixture at pinkrugby.com where I tipped the Reds to win by 9 points and I am sticking to this tip in the multi. The line here is -5.5 points and I think the Reds will cover this here.

Leg 4: Reds to cover the line (-5.5 points) against the Sharks at $1.92

The anchor leg of this week’s multi again comes from the world of Formula 1. This weekend Formula 1 action comes from Germany and I think the best bet in the race is to pick the form driver in the championship, Fernando Alonso, to finish on the podium. Alonso is at the top of the championship and appears to have the car under him to go all the way this season. He is also keeping his car on the track more than in recent seasons and expect with his speed for him to be up the front at the end of this one. I am not sure though that he will defeat one or both of the Red Bulls and thus am only prepared to tip him for the podium here.

Leg 5: Fernando Alonso to finish in the top 3 in the German F1 Grand Prix at $1.72

This multi will return a healthy $23.13 per dollar invested for punters. Good luck and good punting for the weekend.

Shumpty

Shumpty’s Punt: the weekend multi

July 13, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , , Leave a comment

Last week we were let down by the West Coast Eagles not covering the line against the Kangaroos in the AFL and having not had a payout in the last two weeks I have undertaken some extra study to see if we can’t find a winning multi for this weekend.

Once again there is a plethora of sport to get through this weekend with not only all three winter codes in action but the Tour de France, the ANZ Championship, Major League Baseball and the Goldfields Open in Snooker all worthy of attention.

The multi this week has a decidedly Super 15 focus.  This is for no other reason than Super 15 is the sport that I spend most time considering given my weekly preview of Super 15 action published every Thursday on pinkrugby.com.

We kick off the multi with the first match of the Super 15 round from Wellington.  The competition leading Chiefs visit the Hurricanes in this fixture that could see the end of the Hurricanes chances to make the finals.  The Chiefs have been the form team all season and rightly are the current favourites for the title.  The Hurricanes enter this fixture off the back of the bye and have everything to lose.  Ultimately I think the Chiefs will be too classy for the Hurricanes and will cover the line here.

Leg 1: Chiefs to cover the line against the Hurricanes (-3.5) at $1.92

The MLB All Star break has now passed and attention turns to the run to the October classic.  I know we were burned by an MLB bet two weeks again but I think there is some value to be had with the Miami Marlins taking on the Washington Nationals on Saturday morning Australian time.  The Nationals have been one of the surprise packets of the first half, going 49-34 to lead the NL East, and send Jordan Zimmerman to the mound here with a 5-6 record that is not reflective of his excellent 2.61 ERA.  Josh Johnson is pitching here for the Marlins at home and even he would be disappointed with his season so far having gone 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA after probably being seen as the Marlins’ ace at the start of the year.  This is the Marlins best chance to get a game back on their fellow NL East combatants and in front of their home crowd I expect them to squeeze over the line here.  This is the ESPN game on Saturday for those of you with nothing else to do: could be worth a look.

Leg 2: Marlins to defeat the Nationals at $1.78

The Brumbies host the Blues in the next leg of our multi at Canberra Stadium on Saturday afternoon.  The Brumbies have been the pick of the Australian teams in the competition this year and rightly lead the Australian conference.  The Blues have had a season that I have described as their annus horribilis.  I can not see them winning this game and I think the Brumbies will cover the line here.

Leg 3: Brumbies to cover the line against the Blues (-6.5) at $1.92

In NRL action, there are a number of interesting games this week and I think there is some value to be had in the Melbourne Storm’s fixture against the North Queensland Cowboys.  The Storm return their captain to a team that were soundly defeated by the Canberra Raiders last week.  The Cowboys are flying higher than they have for a while and that man J Thurston is leading them like a man possessed.  Ultimately the Storm will be smarting after being belted last week and I think they will come out and put a score on the Cowboys in this one. 

Leg 4: Storm to cover the line against the Cowboys (-6.5) at $1.94

The final Super 15 leg of the multi comes from Lang Park where the Reds host the Waratahs.  The Tahs have lost seven in a row and whilst they have been close to winning a few times they are playing like a team that has forgetten how to win.  The Reds need to win this game to remain in the running for the finals.  They must win and must win well.  That said, I have been worried about the Reds inability to score points all year and whilst I think they will win I am not sure that they will win by many and thus I am including the Reds in the multi straight out. 

Leg 5: Reds to defeat the Waratahs at $1.30

The final leg of the multi comes from Canberra Stadium where the Raiders take on the Titans.  The Raiders will be on a high after defeating the title favourite Storm last week.  The Titans are not the best travellers going around and may struggle with the cold on a chilly day in Canberra.  I think the Raiders have a look about them that is akin to their 2010 finals run and I am tipping them straight out to bring the multi home this week.

Leg 6: Raiders to defeat the Cowboys at $1.53

All up this multi will return to punters a healthy $25.32 for each dollar invested.  Good luck and good punting on the weekend. 

As always: punt responsibly.

Shumpty

Shumpty’s Punt: The Weekend Multi #3

July 6, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , , Leave a comment

Last week we picked up four of five legs of the multi and were let down by the Texas Rangers not covering the line against the Oakland A’s.  There is again a plethora of sport to watch, support and punt on this weekend however, despite that, I am not being greedy and am going back only a five legger this week.  All prices are from sportsbet.com.au and are current at the time of posting.

My weekend sports multi for this weekend is as follows:

Leg 1

As I have previously noted I usually loath to put a bet on the NRL.  This is principally because I am not a big follower of the game any more but for when the Canberra Raiders play.  That said, this week I am very keen on the Canterbury Bulldogs to defeat the Wests Tigers.  The Bulldogs are coming off the back of a five game winning streak and have been minimally disrupted by the State of Origin period.  The Tigers have lost their last two games whilst missing 100 tackles and they are without Robbie Farah for this one.  The Bulldogs should win and win well and I think they will cover the line.

Canterbury Bulldogs to cover the line (-6.0) against the Wests Tigers at $1.92

Leg 2

The North Melbourne Kangaroos host the West Coast Eagles at Blundstone Arena in Tasmania on Saturday afternoon in what should be a very interesting fixture.  The Eagles have lost three games this season and have lost them all away.  The Kangaroos are coming off a two match winning streak and have been playing an expansive brand of football that might trouble the Eagles.  All that said, I think this game could come down to a battle of the big men in the middle and that leans me towards the Eagles because they will be pitting their stars in Cox and Naitanui against a depleted ruck for North with Hamish McIntosh sidelined with a knee injury.  Dominance in the mid-field should convert to points for the Eagles and I think they will cover the line in this one.

West Coast Eagles to cover the line (-15.5) against the North Melbourne Kangaroos at $1.92

Leg 3

Round 17 of Super 15 Rugby presents as a vital round for the combatants seeking to make the finals.  An interesting fixture from a betting perspective is the Waratahs hosting the Brumbies at the Sydney Football Stadium on Saturday evening.  The Brumbies have been the form team of the Australian conference and have been in excellent recent form save for a 1 point loss to the Reds.  The Waratahs have been woeful this season and have not had a win in 9 weeks.  I can not believe that the line has the Brumbies only giving up 1 point.  I expect the Brumbies to win and win fairly comfortably and thus am more than happy to take the Brumbies at the line here.

Brumbies to cover the line (-1.0) against the Waratahs at $1.90

Leg 4

Round 17 of Super 15 also provides our fourth leg of the multi this week.  Bloemfontein plays host to the Cheetahs playing the Stormers in the early hours of Sunday morning Australian time.  The Stormers have been consistent all season, lead the South African conference and have the best defence in the competition.  The Cheetahs are enigmatic at best and can be woeful at worst.  I have no hesitation of declaring the Stormers the winners of this fixture but I have no clue as to how much they will win by because they just do not score enough points for me to be confident they will cover the line. 

Stormers to defeat the Cheetahs straight out at $1.38

Leg 5

The final leg of our multi this week again comes from the world of Formula 1.  This weekend is the British Grand Prix from Silverstone.  This is a race that many think the McClarens will dominate: I do not share that view.  Jenson Button has not had a car under him to do much at all in recent rounds and Lewis Hamilton is another jack failing during a pit stop away from descending into red mist territory again this season.  For some reason people do not seem to think Mark Webber is a good driver of a F1 car.  I for one think he is a great driver who does not get the plaudits he deserves.  In six of eight rounds this season he has placed fourth or better and he is the second placed driver in the championship.  Whilst I am unsure of his chances of winning here I reckon he is a lock for the top six and have him doing just that as the anchor of the multi this week.

Mark Webber to place in the top six in the Great Britain Grand Prix at $1.80

All up the multi this week will return $17.40 to punters.  As usual, only bet what you can afford and if you can not afford it is simple: don’t bet.

Have a great weekend.

Yours in sport,

Shumpty

Shumpty Punts: or does he? When to put the cash back in the wallet

June 30, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , Leave a comment

A very short post today: the Caloundra Cup race day has presented with a Heavy 10 track and frankly, with all of the rain in South East Queensland this week I am a bit surprised they even got on.

I hate punting on wet tracks and will not be having a bet. It is one of those days to leave the money in the wallet.

If you are having a punt: hope you go well.

Shumpty’s Punt: The weekend sports multi #2

June 29, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , Leave a comment

It is Friday and that means only one thing: it is time for the weekend sports multi.

Last week, if you had a bet on the multi you received a return of just over $10 (per dollar invested) after Sauber’s Sergio Perez limped home to be 9th in the European Grand Prix.  I don’t know what I was cheering more loudly: Mark Webber’s charge through the field to pick up 4th or Perez holding on to put Shumpty’s Punt fans in the cash.

Off the back of that result, I have come up with a 5 leg multi that I am again pretty confident will see followers laughing all the way to the bank.  All odds have been sourced from sportsbet.com.au. 

The multi this week kicks off tonight with the Reds visiting the Rebels at AAMI Park.  The Reds need to keep winning to keep their finals hopes alive however the Rebels will be farewelling some of their star players who will be donning the Rebels’ jersey for the last time at home.  I think the Reds have too much firepower in this one and will cover the line. 

Leg one: Reds to cover the line (-9.5) at $1.92

For the second leg, attention turns to the Texas and MLB where the Texas Rangers host the Oakland As.  The Rangers send their in form Matt Harrison to the mound and have an offence that is firing on all cylinders (save for their superstar Josh Hamilton who has hit .200 in June).  I think the Rangers will score a heap of runs off Oakland’s rookie starter A.J. Griffin whilst restricting the opportunities for the As to score.  That all means that I am tipping the Rangers to cover the line in this one.

Leg two: Texas Rangers to cover the line (-1.5 runs) at $1.89

Leg three comes from the AFL and the Bombers v Bulldogs game from Etihad Stadium.  James Hird has his young Bombers side flying at the moment while the Western Bulldogs have been more than a bit pedestrian this year.  Like the Baby Bombers of the early 90s, the Bombers are winning games through speed in the mid field and tough defence.  The Bulldogs will not score enough points to challenge the Bombers and I expect them to run away with the game in the fourth quarter.  Again I am tipping the Bombers to cover the line.

Leg three: Bombers to cover the line (-28.5 points) at $1.92

At the same time as the Bombers will be taking on the Bulldogs, the fourth leg of our multi will be kicking off at nib Stadium in Perth where the Western Force will be hosting the Brumbies.  The Brumbies have been the form Australian team in Super 15 rugby this year and I expect them to rise to the challenge of the Western Force’s blue army to win this game in what could be a tight one.  I am tipping the Brumbies to cover the line.

Leg four: Brumbies to cover the line (-4.5 points) at $1.92

This week’s final leg sees me break one of my cardinal rules and place a bet on the NRL.  The Cowboys will be without their talismatic leader in Jonathan Thurston as well as their key forward Matt Scott for their visit across the ditch to take on the New Zealand Warriors.  The Warriors are enigmatic at the best of times but I expect them to put a score on the Cowboys in this one and cover the line.

Leg five: Cowboys to cover the line (-14.5 points) at $1.92

This week I have not tipped any particular banker and am happy with the five legs which, if successful, will return $25.68 for every dollar invested. 

Good luck to all if you are having a punt and remember, as always, if you can not afford to make the bet: don’t.  Is pretty simple really.