Tonight, Australian time, my favourite golf tournament of the year kicks off at Royal Liverpool Golf Club: the Open Championship.

Golf is difficult spot to tip: in part because the difference in talent between the world number 1 and world number 100 is not all that much and in part because the weather can play such a role in how a round plays out, particularly in this tournament.

All of that said, having run the ruler over the combatants for year’s Open, there is one name that I keep coming back to and that is Martin Kaymer. No player in 2014 has been in better form than the man from Dusseldorf. At $17 he is well worth a wager, particularly in the market to make the top 10.

At the other end of the spectrum, one player I will be laying this week is Graeme McDowell. “GMac” did win on the European tour last month but that aside has not been in form for a while. Also he possesses an ordinary record in majors since his 5th at the Open in 2012 having missed the cut in three of the seven majors since then and never being in the top 10. $26 is unders for mine.

One of the things I love about the Open is that generally there is a “roughie” that pops up on the leaderboard. For me, that man this year is Jamie Donaldson. He is ultra consistent on the European tour and at $71 will be getting a nibble of cash from me.

So here are my Open tips for 2014:

Best Bet: Martin Kaymer
Best “Roughie”: Jamie Donaldson
Lay: Graeme McDowell

As always:

1. Please gamble responsibly.
2. Whilst all care is taken with these tips no responsibility vests for losses incurred.