Shumpty’s Punt: Queensland Oaks Day and Sport

This is the first Shumpty’s Punt for a while. To be honest I have only been sporadically on the punt of late and mainly have been betting more on whim rather than with a defined plan.

Having had a rest day from work today I have had some time to consider some bets for the weekend.

Horse racing in Queensland heads to Eagle Farm for the Treasury Casino Queensland Oaks Day. The weather has been rotten in Brisbane over the last couple of days and with more showers expected, coupled with Eagle Farm’s notoriously poor drainage, a wet track can be expected. This makes it a tough day for selections and thus I have only come up with three races in which I will be passing on a tip:

Race 5 (Dane Ripper Stakes 1400m)

In this race I am going to go with one of the “southern invaders” from the Waller Stable in the form of Red Tracer (7). This horse has been freshened for this race, has never been worse than second over the distance and is undefeated on slow / heavy tracks. Everything is falling in its favour to win this.

Race 6 (Queensland Guineas 1400m)

If the track is still heavy at this point my money will be on Boys on Tour (7). From the Patinack yard, this horse loves the track and is a noted mud lark. It rattled home last start and if the conditions suit should be right in the mix in this race. If the track has dried out to anything better than a slow 7 I will not be betting here.

The Queensland Oaks follows the Guineas and I just can’t pick anything out of the large field here to be confident enough to tip a winner. I will have a small wager on Dowager Queen (2) just to keep some interest.

Race 8 (QTC Cup 1300m)

In the “get out stakes” I have gone searching for a bit of each way value and the more I looked at the form the more I kept coming back to Meet George (8). It rattled home last start and likes this track at this distance. If there is some give in the ground by this point in the day it will not worry it.

This weekend also brings us the last round of Super 15 Rugby before the break in hostilities in that competition (check out my full preview at pinkrugby.com). My sports betting will be on the rugby only this weekend, as it has been the last couple of weekends. I am avoiding the Bulls v Stormers match from a betting perspective but implore everyone to make sure they are near a TV set for this game. I will be having a multi made up of the following legs:

Chiefs to defeat the Blues by 13 points or more
Hurricanes to defeat the Waratahs by 1 to 12 points
Crusaders to defeat the Highlanders by 1 to 12 points
Sharks to defeat the Lions by 13 points or more

It will, as always, be a cracking weekend of sport. If you are having a wager, then, as always, do so responsibly. As with all tipping, whilst I take the utmost care in giving these tips I take no responsibility for losses.

Have a great weekend!

Shumpty

Shumpty’s Punt: 27 April 2012

Happy Friday everyone!!! Given that it is Friday this means that before us we have 2 and a half days (if you include Friday night) of wall to wall sport to watch, analyse, tweet about and, for those minded, have a wager on. 6 games of Super 15 Rugby, 5 games of NRL, 8 games of AFL, the cricket from the West Indies, MLB and NHL from the US, ANZ Championship Netball, the EPL from the UK and horseracing from all major centres including Black Caviar going around.  If you can’t find something to watch and a winner out of that lot you are not trying hard enough.

For the sporting bet fans, my best bets for the weekend are:

  • In the AFL, I like Freemantle to beat the Blues with a margin of 1-39 points (pays $2.85).  Ross Lyon has the Dockers playing a grinding defensive brand of football that I expect to stifle the Blues midfield and let’s be honest, if the Blues midfield is not firing they usually struggle.
  • I have not really followed much of the NRL this year, aside from watching the mighty Raiders play, so I am steering clear of any bets on the NRL this week.
  • The Super 15 presents a number of close games and a number of mismatches.  I like the Stormers to put a score on the hapless Force and think the Stormers by 13 points or more is a good bet ($2.75).  Also, I can not believe that the Reds have been posted as $3 outsiders for tonights fixture against the Blues.  Some of my hard earned will be going on the Reds as well!
  • It wouldn’t be a weekend of sport’s betting without having a little wager on something in the EPL.  I think the Swansea v Wolves game presents some easy money and will be taking the $2.30 on offer for the Swansea half time / full time double.

On Saturday, most eyes will be on Black Caviar at Morphettville but I think there is some good value in a few races around the country that some attention should also be given to as follows:

  • Many seem to think the Sydney Cup (SR6) is a race in two between Niwot and Permit but I am steering clear of both in this one and will be going with Older than Time (#9).  Gai Waterhouse is on a roll again this Sydney Carnival and I think this race is made for this horse.  She will be near the front and will be tough for the main chances to run down particularly if the sting is out of the track.
  • In the Queen Elizabeth Stakes that immediately follows (SR7) I am again steering clear of the favourite, More Joyous.  I concerned about whether she will run the trip and that has me leaning towards Manighar.  Americian is also in this race but, converse to the More Joyous concerns, I do not think this race is long enough for him.  Manighar, with Oliver in the saddle out of the Moody yard, will be primed in this one and has been in brilliant form this preparation.

I have avoided Brisbane at this point because the variable weather at the moment looks like giving us a heavy to slow track and I would rather not nail my colours to the mast on that meeting just yet.

Hope you all have a great weekend whatever it is your doing.  I, as you have probably already gleaned, will be in front of the TV watching sport, glorious sport, for much of it.

Good luck and good punting.

Shumpty