Tag Archives: AFL

Shumpty’s Punt: multi plus horse racing

July 12, 2013 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

Another weekend means another festivus of sports and punting. This weekend I have a four leg multi that I am particularly keen on as well as a couple of horses that I think have the potential to run well. As always: gamble responsibly, whilst I take all care with these tips I take no responsibility if they are unsuccessful and prices are accurate from Sportsbet.com.au at the time of posting.

Horse Racing

Brisbane Race 3 Number 5 Thefifthole (each way) ($6.50 / $2.30)

Melbourne Race 6 Number 9 Happy Galaxy (win) ($3.50)

Sydney Race 2 Number 4 Short Shift (win) ($2.10)

Sports Multi

Leg 1: Chiefs to cover the line (-6.5 points) against the Blues in Super Rugby at $1.92

Leg 2: Reds to cover the line (+2.5 points) against the Waratahs in Super Rugby at $1.92

Leg 3: Essendon to defeat the Western Bulloggs by 40 or more points in the AFL at $1.86

Leg 4: Manly to cover the line (-7.5 points) against North Queensland in NRL at $1.90

This multi will return $13.02 for every dollar invested and in the interests of full disclosure I have wagered $25 on this multi.

Good luck and good punting everyone! Bring on the sport!

Shumpty’s Punt: Weekend Multi plus Horse Racing

July 5, 2013 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , , Leave a comment

Have had a close look at the form for this weekend and here are my bets. As always please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford.

Multi Bet:

Leg 1: Brisbane Lions to defeat the Gold Coast Suns in the AFL ($1.55)

Leg 2: Hurricanes to cover the line against the Highlanders (-9.5 points) in Super Rugby ($1.90)

Leg 3: Canberra Raiders to cover the line against the NQ Cowboys (-4.5 points) in the NRL ($1.92)

Leg 4: Bulls to cover the line against the Sharks (-6.5 points) in Super Rugby ($1.90)

Leg 5: Nico Rosberg to be on the podium in the German Grand Prix ($2.50)

All up this multi will pay $26.85 for every dollar invested (prices are from Sportsbet.com.au) and I have invested $25.

Horse Racing:

Eagle Farm:

Race 3 Number 10 Avaladyluck (Win)
Race 7 Number 3 Griffon (Each Way)

Rosehill:

Race 2 Number 7 Rebel Dancer (Each Way)

Flemington:

Race 5 Number 3 Riziz (Win)

Good luck and good punting!

Shumpty’s Punt: 22 / 23 June 2013

June 21, 2013 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , Leave a comment

I know I said that I was hanging up the punting boots after a run of multi bets that had, simply put, done my head in and been rendered nugatory in the first leg. I have given some thought to having a couple of bets this weekend for the first time in a while and have come up with a couple of bets at Eagle Farm and a 4 leg multi that I reckon are well placed to get punters a return.

Horse Racing

Eagle Farm Race 6: Rothera

Eagle Farm Race 7: Red Tracer

Sports Multi

Leg 1: New Zealand All Blacks to cover the line (-19.5 points) against France at $1.90.

Leg 2: Canberra Raiders to cover the line (-8.0 points) against Wests Tigers at $1.92.

Leg 3: British and Irish Lions to cover the line (-3.5 points) against Australia at $1.92.

Leg 4: Fremantle Dockers to defeat North Melbourne with the margin 1 – 39 points at $2.00.

This multi will pay $14.00 for every dollar invested.

I am aware that I am betting against the Wallabies here and it goes against everything my heart is saying but, as I wrote yesterday, I think the Wallabies are massively underdone for this test match.

Good luck and good punting all and, as always, please gamble responsibly.

The other AFL story this week: the new Queensland powerhouse?

May 31, 2013 By in Shumpty Speaks Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

The biggest story in AFL this week has revolved around the vilification of one of the marquee players of the game. I do not want to get into that: enough has been written and said and whilst I am very concerned at the way it has been handled by the AFL there is another story about AFL that I want to comment on. I will quote the CEO of the AFL:

“By the end of the year, that [Queensland’s] will the second highest participation rate in Australia, higher than WA or South Australia”.

That is right folks: AFL is apparently a big business in Queensland and that is even when compared to rugby league. These statistics don’t lie: rugby league reports that in 2012 it had 170,027 active participants whilst the AFL reports that it had 155,000 such participants. Additionally, AFL is working off the back of growth in participation numbers of 9% per annum. That, in anyone’s language, is exceptionally good growth.

I should be very clear here: I am more a fan of cricket and rugby union rather than rugby league or AFL. What I find interesting about those numbers is the significant shift in the demographic of the players of sport in Queensland. Times certainly have changed from when I was a kid running around sports fields playing sport. Some 25 years ago I did not know that one could play AFL in Queensland and I would be astonished if any young bloke growing up in my generation thought any different. AFL was not the played sport back then: you played rugby league in the winter or cricket in the summer and that was pretty much it.

So why am I writing about this? Two reasons:

1. I do not believe the AFL and Brisbane Lions in particular have received enough kudos for the work they have done to develop the game in this state; and
2. It has to be stated that rugby league has done an equally poor job.

Upon the Lions winning their brace of three premierships they have leveraged off their massive up lift in membership and attendances at games to educate the people of Queensland about the game. The last of those victories was a decade ago and yet the fans continue to flock to the Gabba in droves to watch their team. What I think the Lions and the AFL have done particularly well is that they have won over the parents of sports playing kids.

Obviously one of the ways in which they have done this is that they have publicised the game of AFL as an essentially non-contact alternative to rugby league for children. Also, it is obvious when one goes to the games (I have attended recently at the Gabba as well on the Gold Coast) that attendance at the games is certainly kid friendly. Every game I have been too I have been impressed with number of children in attendance and engaged in the game.

The rugby league authorities have not done enough, conversely, in my view to make attendance at games kid friendly. This is an entirely personal view based solely on my attendances at games. The test that I have applied in coming to this conclusion is whether I would be happy to take my nephews or kids of my mates to a game and, indeed, have I actually done so? This year I have taken my nephews / kids of my mates to AFL and rugby union games but I have always been hesitant about taking them to a rugby league game. The vibe is just different: I cannot explain it. I guess I am going to be less likely to take young kids to a sporting contest that I myself in the past have felt personally threatened for my safety being in the crowd and that has only ever happened at rugby league games.

I am not at all here casting negative aspersions on rugby league fans: I am not. What I am saying is that if there is one area in which the NRL and the other rugby league authorities including the clubs have let themselves down it is in making the game family friendly. Of course parents, particularly mothers, are going to prefer their children to play a game that they feel comfortable taking them to watch.

The other area in which I think the NRL has let itself down is in its traditional heartland. Whilst kids are still playing rugby league in, for example, Ipswich and Toowoomba, it is entirely obvious that the AFL is making inroads in both places given, for example, the involvement of a number of junior teams from the Ipswich area in the greater Brisbane junior AFL competitions. A NRL team in either centre or even in Central Queensland would go a long way to pause those inroads being made by the AFL.

The rugby league authorities need to lift their game in Queensland: there is no escaping that. Equally, I for one am pleased that kids these days have a freedom of choice when it comes to sports they play. The fact that those kids have that choice is all to the credit of the AFL. I am waiting with baited breath for a similar report to come out next year on 2013 participation numbers in sport. I am fairly certain that the AFL will have pushed passed the rugby league to be the most popular oval ball sport in Queensland. Who ever thought they would see that day? I, for one, certainly did not!

NRL and ASADA: when did this become about unfairness?

April 29, 2013 By in Shumpty Speaks Tags: , , , Leave a comment

I was listening to the Triple M rugby league show with Matthew Johns, among others, On Sunday afternoon and was more than a little irritated by the statement that ASADA’s proposed questioning of players who are alleged to have taken illegal substances was unfair particularly around State of Origin time. I was also irritated by the statement that the ASADA investigation was unfair on the Cronulla Sharks and that that was a reason for their poor start to the season.

This is not the first time I have heard these comments. Indeed from the rugby league I do watch and the commentary about it that I listen to and read it seems to be the prevailing opinion that ASADA has been grossly unfair in its investigation.

Firstly, I am in no way a defender of ASADA or the Crime Commission. I believe that the report issued jointly by them should have come AFTER an investigation into the use of illegal drugs in sport was finalised. This did not happen and now ASADA is investigating.

Secondly, it must be remembered that ASADA is a federal body investigating the illegal use of drugs in sport. If guilty the users will be suspended and, worse, condemned as cheats and worse still a game will be tarnished for years to come. They have not targeted anyone with malice or forthought, rather they are simply doing their jobs.

The stakes are obviously high and equally obviously ASADA needs to get its investigation right. If there is an allegation that is backed by some evidence then it is obvious that ASADA should, and in fact, must investigate. How is that in any way unfair? If the allegations are false then the players and club are cleared. If the allegations are true then, I repeat, the punishment will be severe.

Surely then those espousing the “unfairness” argument surrounding ASADA’s investigation would want them to investigate in their own time to ensure that: a. they get the investigation right; and b. if the club and players are innocent they are able to declare as much. An elongated investigation assists no one and only adds to the rumour and innuendo surrounding the code, the clubs and the players.

Would similar statements of unfairness be making made if the Sharks had have started the season 7-0 rather than 2-5? I am pretty sure the answer to that is no. There is empirical proof to back this: one only has to look at the conduct of the Essendon AFL club who are 5-0 and have been even more publicly embroiled in the drugs in sport controversy and the ASADA investigation. I mean the Bombers coach has been directly and personally implicated for goodness sake and they have continued to win.

I think the NRL and its players should consider themselves very lucky. In other jurisdictions sportsmen are stood down immediately upon an allegation of misuse of a banned substance made with the due process surrounding the investigation taking place AFTER the “ban” starts. The fact that the Sharks (and other teams’ players) are still able to play whilst under investigation should be seen as a postive for the NRL and indicative that they could be in a much worse position then they are now.

I believe that everyone is innocent until they are proven guilty. I equally agree that due process must be followed. The NRL’s “supporters” of the argument that ASADA is being unfair are seeking to change the rules of engagement by publicly arguing that the ongoing investigation is such. This victim mentality must stop because it is not serving anyone; NRL, players, media and ASADA alike well.

In fact I will go one step further: the NRL and its players MUST stop with its campaign to convince us that this investigation is unfair and they are victims in all of this because, simply, it is not and they are not. ASADA has a job to do and they should be allowed to do it without this unnecessary intervention.

The Australian Crime Commission and Sport: why issuing the report now was a mistake

February 11, 2013 By in Shumpty Speaks Tags: , , , , , Leave a comment

Much has been made of the announcement by the Australian Crime Commission and the Ministers of the Crown for Sport and Justice about the findings of the recent ACC report into links between sport and the criminal underworld. Much has also been written about the report including the expected whispers about who is guilty and who is not guilty of the use of performance enhancers.

The press conference upon the issuing of the report and the portion of the report that has been made public (which, for the record, I have read cover to cover) were, with respect to all involved, replete with allegation and innuendo but lacking in hard evidence and, most importantly for the fans, the names of those “guilty” of using performance enhancing drugs in sport and, more worrying, the fixing of matches.

Now I agree with the legal position taken by the ACC: until the allegations are investigated and charges, be they internal within the sport in question or external before a court of proper jurisdiction, the naming of those alleged to be involved is absolutely wrong and likely to be prejudicial to any prosecution. The problem is though that in my view releasing the report without the same investigations being completed had the potential to, and indeed has, had the same effect.

What we have now is a whispering campaign of whodunit coupled with the codes focused on passing the buck between the themselves without really resolving who actually has contravened the laws of each such code or, more seriously, the relevant Crimes Act of each state. It beggars belief that the ACC and those same ministers of the crown did not think that this would happen. Australian’s love their sport and this was the only possible outcome to the release of a report which is, as I have noted above, scant on real detail and heavy on redacted summation.

I understand that the ACC was hoping that some offenders would come forward and admit their culpability in return for a lighter sentence. Frankly though that just smacks of an investigative body that does not actually have enough evidence now to take steps against the alleged offenders. If they did then the whispers would surely have not been needed to character assassinate whole clubs and codes: they simply could have said “this investigation is complete and here are the results” rather than “we have investigated but there is more investigation needed and we need help”.

For all of the powers of the ACC the impression that one is left with is that it is either a “toothless tiger” incapable of investigating what would seem to be a fairly simple series of allegations OR they were rushed to push out the report. Surely, as I have commented above, it was better to wait until there was something more concrete to actually report.

All in all my summation of things is that this has been handled in a poor fashion and the report was certainly released too soon. The impact of this is that the very risk that the ACC and the ministers sought to avoid, the inability to get a fair trial, is probably already upon us.

One final thought: upon my reading of all of the newspaper reports on this issue it reads like there are players from 7 clubs alleged to have taken PEDs or been involved in the conduct the subject of the investigation. For all of the hand wringing at the press conference, all of the “death of Australian sport” headlines and for of the press does that number seem strikingly low to you? On my count there are 50 professional sports teams across the winter codes and cricket in this country could it be that the bulk of that reporting has been beset with hyperbole? Has the ACC cried wolf and this is not as big a problem as the report would have one believe?

I for one will be watching with interest at the developments in the coming weeks.