Category Archives: Shumpty’s Punt

Shumpty’s Punt: 23/6/12

June 23, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , Leave a comment

Another beautiful day beckons in Brisbane and it is the last Group 1 of the season at Eagle Farm in the Tatts Tiara.

I think there is some good value throughout the field today and like the following for those of you having a punt.

Race 1 Number 1 – Thefifthhole

Whilst drawn wide, I expect this horse to get across and lead.  It is a good front runner and I am concerned that the others in the field might have a bit too much to do towards the end of this race to catch it.  Raise Up is the obvious threat with the form out of its last race now looking pretty good.  Ultimately though I will stick with the frontrunner to get the cash in this.

Race 3 Number 1 – Skating on Ice

Simply, this horse is the class runner in the race.  Much like race one I think this horse will lead and win.  The main threat is Bianca Jewel.  That said, Skating on Ice is off a short back up and looks primed for this one.

Race 4 Number 8 Hoss Amor

This horse will start favourite and has had a change of jockey albeit I am not sure putting Chris Munce onto a horse could ever be considered a bad thing.  It has a bad gate as well.  I am on it this week have dropped of it for its last run and being punished in the hip pocket.  Probably a stupid reason I know, but I just have a feeling today could be another of those days one would be well advised to get on.

Race 7 Number 15 Shopaholic

This horse returns after a valiant effort in the Stradbroke that was crushed by the bad gate.  Gets a good barrier here and has Dwayne Dunn aboard.  Off that back of its impressive last start effort I can’t see anything else in this field beating it.

I hope you find some winners out of the foregoing today and have a great day whatever it is you are doing.

Shumpty

Shumpty Punts: the weekend sport’s multi

June 22, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Another exciting weekend of sport awaits us and for something different this week I am going to try and pick for readers a multi bet that should lead to a handsome return.  Earlier editions of Shumpty’s Punt have been met with some comment about the inappropriateness of glorifying gambling.  I do not write this blog to specifically offend people and I apologise if I do.  Equally if you not a punting fan, I suggest you exercise your right to choose and decline to read any further into this post.

That now said, onto this weekends action and the weekend multi.  All prices quoted are from sportsbet.com.au.

We will start with tonight’s AFL fixture between the Swans and Cats at the SCG.  This game is the match of the round for mine and features two sides coming off a bye.  The Swans have the best percentage in the AFL whilst the Cats have struggled for peak form all year.  I am leaning towards the Swans in this one in front of their home fans in what presents as a tight tussle.

Swans by 1-39 ($2.25)

Later on Friday evening England host the West Indies in the third one day match of their ongoing series.  Whilst I am often loath to bet on the shorter forms of cricket for obvious reasons, I like England here to continue their domination of the West Indies despite the return of that man Gayle.

England to win ($1.70)

For the third leg of the multi attention turns to the Australia v Wales Rugby Union clash at the Sydney Football Stadium on Saturday afternoon.  So far this series has involved some excellent and tight rugby from both sides with the Wallabies stealing a victory in Melbourne last week.  With the Welsh coming to the end of a longish tour and the Wallabies injecting new blood in the form of Kurtley Beale I expect the Wallabies to prevail again here in what again could end up a close score line.

Australia by 1-12 ($2.60)

In the interests of not getting too greedy I will limit the multi this week to four legs and for this the fourth and last leg I have found a little bit of value in the Formula 1 race from Valencia.  This F1 year has been a nightmare for tipsters with seven different winners from seven races.  That being the case I am going to avoid tipping a winner and tip Sergio Perez from the Sauber team to finish in the points (Top 10).  Aside from one DNF in Spain Perez has been one of the most consistent drivers in the paddock and I expect him to again pilot his Sauber machine into the points.

Perez in the Top 10 ($1.72)

All up this multi if it gets up will pay $17.11 for each dollar you place on it.  I have gone with $25 for my investment.

Outside of the multi, I have decided to round out my bets this weekend with a bet on the Sonoma Toyota/Save Mart 350 (NASCAR).  This is a road circuit and Australian Marcus Ambrose is the raging favourite to win his first race of the year in this race.  Anything can happen in these races but at $4.50 I consider Ambrose excellent value and will be placing some of my hard earned on him.

Good luck for anyone having a punt this weekend and as always if you don’t have the cash to spare don’t bet: it is simple really.

Shumpty’s Punt: Ipswich Cup Day

June 16, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Leave a comment

Good morning all: as I sit on my balcony down at Rainbow Bow the lure of the beach is nearly strong enough to pull me away from my form guide BUT never fear I have come up with a couple of bets today that I hope will reap rewards for regular followers of “Shumpty’s Punt”.

It is Ipswich Cup Day and to say it looks like a difficult day would be the understatement of the century.  It is a funny old track Bundamba and can always throw up an upset.  That being the case, I will be limiting my bets (well my declared bets) to only a couple and will spend the rest of my afternoon on the punt just watching the racing.

So today I have three tips only: in the first, the Cup and the lucky last at Ipswich.

Race 1: Telesto Warrior (5)

Can not go past the favourite in the first: loves the track, gets the claim and, for mine, wins.  Nothing wrong with kicking the day off with a favourite to fill up the bank.

Race 6 (the Cup): Mr Light Blue (7)

I am going off the favourite (Ginga Dude) here principally because of the weight and the fact that anything can and will happen in the Cup.  Mr Light Blue is another one of the “Ipswich Specialists” running today and I reckon he can get the job done in a race that is so often a lottery.

Race 8: Vacallo (4)

Has the gate and the jockey to win the lucky last but again this race is historically a lottery so if you still are square on the day I would be putting my money in my wallet and heading for the exit (or the rum and coke queue).

I hope you find a winner our of the foregoing and promise that we will be back to a full program of tips next week.

Good luck and good punting.

Shumpty’s Punt: addendum

June 2, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , Leave a comment

Well the Super 15 multi has gone out the window after results last night but it was an exhilarating night of rugby nonetheless.

Just wanted to add to the horse racing tips from yesterday by adding the horse of my friend Mindy Pawsey (@MKPS001 … Follow her: she rocks) which is running for the first time in town today. Definitely worth a look at Lucymaylyn at Warwick Farm in Race 3.

Get on board the “Lucy express” today!

Shumpty

Shumpty’s Punt: Queensland Oaks Day and Sport

June 1, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , Leave a comment

This is the first Shumpty’s Punt for a while. To be honest I have only been sporadically on the punt of late and mainly have been betting more on whim rather than with a defined plan.

Having had a rest day from work today I have had some time to consider some bets for the weekend.

Horse racing in Queensland heads to Eagle Farm for the Treasury Casino Queensland Oaks Day. The weather has been rotten in Brisbane over the last couple of days and with more showers expected, coupled with Eagle Farm’s notoriously poor drainage, a wet track can be expected. This makes it a tough day for selections and thus I have only come up with three races in which I will be passing on a tip:

Race 5 (Dane Ripper Stakes 1400m)

In this race I am going to go with one of the “southern invaders” from the Waller Stable in the form of Red Tracer (7). This horse has been freshened for this race, has never been worse than second over the distance and is undefeated on slow / heavy tracks. Everything is falling in its favour to win this.

Race 6 (Queensland Guineas 1400m)

If the track is still heavy at this point my money will be on Boys on Tour (7). From the Patinack yard, this horse loves the track and is a noted mud lark. It rattled home last start and if the conditions suit should be right in the mix in this race. If the track has dried out to anything better than a slow 7 I will not be betting here.

The Queensland Oaks follows the Guineas and I just can’t pick anything out of the large field here to be confident enough to tip a winner. I will have a small wager on Dowager Queen (2) just to keep some interest.

Race 8 (QTC Cup 1300m)

In the “get out stakes” I have gone searching for a bit of each way value and the more I looked at the form the more I kept coming back to Meet George (8). It rattled home last start and likes this track at this distance. If there is some give in the ground by this point in the day it will not worry it.

This weekend also brings us the last round of Super 15 Rugby before the break in hostilities in that competition (check out my full preview at pinkrugby.com). My sports betting will be on the rugby only this weekend, as it has been the last couple of weekends. I am avoiding the Bulls v Stormers match from a betting perspective but implore everyone to make sure they are near a TV set for this game. I will be having a multi made up of the following legs:

Chiefs to defeat the Blues by 13 points or more
Hurricanes to defeat the Waratahs by 1 to 12 points
Crusaders to defeat the Highlanders by 1 to 12 points
Sharks to defeat the Lions by 13 points or more

It will, as always, be a cracking weekend of sport. If you are having a wager, then, as always, do so responsibly. As with all tipping, whilst I take the utmost care in giving these tips I take no responsibility for losses.

Have a great weekend!

Shumpty

Shumpty’s Punt: 27 April 2012

April 27, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , , Leave a comment

Happy Friday everyone!!! Given that it is Friday this means that before us we have 2 and a half days (if you include Friday night) of wall to wall sport to watch, analyse, tweet about and, for those minded, have a wager on. 6 games of Super 15 Rugby, 5 games of NRL, 8 games of AFL, the cricket from the West Indies, MLB and NHL from the US, ANZ Championship Netball, the EPL from the UK and horseracing from all major centres including Black Caviar going around.  If you can’t find something to watch and a winner out of that lot you are not trying hard enough.

For the sporting bet fans, my best bets for the weekend are:

  • In the AFL, I like Freemantle to beat the Blues with a margin of 1-39 points (pays $2.85).  Ross Lyon has the Dockers playing a grinding defensive brand of football that I expect to stifle the Blues midfield and let’s be honest, if the Blues midfield is not firing they usually struggle.
  • I have not really followed much of the NRL this year, aside from watching the mighty Raiders play, so I am steering clear of any bets on the NRL this week.
  • The Super 15 presents a number of close games and a number of mismatches.  I like the Stormers to put a score on the hapless Force and think the Stormers by 13 points or more is a good bet ($2.75).  Also, I can not believe that the Reds have been posted as $3 outsiders for tonights fixture against the Blues.  Some of my hard earned will be going on the Reds as well!
  • It wouldn’t be a weekend of sport’s betting without having a little wager on something in the EPL.  I think the Swansea v Wolves game presents some easy money and will be taking the $2.30 on offer for the Swansea half time / full time double.

On Saturday, most eyes will be on Black Caviar at Morphettville but I think there is some good value in a few races around the country that some attention should also be given to as follows:

  • Many seem to think the Sydney Cup (SR6) is a race in two between Niwot and Permit but I am steering clear of both in this one and will be going with Older than Time (#9).  Gai Waterhouse is on a roll again this Sydney Carnival and I think this race is made for this horse.  She will be near the front and will be tough for the main chances to run down particularly if the sting is out of the track.
  • In the Queen Elizabeth Stakes that immediately follows (SR7) I am again steering clear of the favourite, More Joyous.  I concerned about whether she will run the trip and that has me leaning towards Manighar.  Americian is also in this race but, converse to the More Joyous concerns, I do not think this race is long enough for him.  Manighar, with Oliver in the saddle out of the Moody yard, will be primed in this one and has been in brilliant form this preparation.

I have avoided Brisbane at this point because the variable weather at the moment looks like giving us a heavy to slow track and I would rather not nail my colours to the mast on that meeting just yet.

Hope you all have a great weekend whatever it is your doing.  I, as you have probably already gleaned, will be in front of the TV watching sport, glorious sport, for much of it.

Good luck and good punting.

Shumpty