Category Archives: Shumpty’s Punt

Shumpty’s Punt: what to do in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes

February 15, 2013 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , Leave a comment

Well Black Caviar returns to racing this weekend in the Group 1 Weight for Age Black Caviar Lightning Stakes over 1000m. The Champion Mare returns to the track for the first time in 8 months and has been posted as $1.06 favourite on most fixed price market.

This leads to the usual question of how do you find some value out of a Black Caviar race. I have had a look at the form and reckon there might be some good value in this first 4 bet:

1st: Black Caviar (Number 6)
2nd: Golden Archer (Number 2) / Shamexpress (Number 8)
3nd: First Command (Number 1)/ 2 / Moment of Change (Number 3) / Satin Shoes (Number 7)/ 8
4th: 1 / 2 / 3 / 7 / 8

A $50 bet on this will get you back a little over 2 times the dividend so for a fun bet it is well worth the effort in my view.

Shumpty’s Punt: a bit of sport and Group 1 Racing

February 15, 2013 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

A few bets for this weekend:

Sports

A small multi for this weekend that I think is on the money:

Leg 1: England to defeat New Zealand in Twenty 20 International paying $1.65.

Leg 2: Melbourne Rebels to cover the line (-7.5 points) against the Western Force in the Super 15 at AAMI Park paying $1.85.

Leg 3: Wales to cover the line (-7.0 points) against Italy in the Six Nations paying $1.90.

Leg 4: Australia to win the 2013 Womens Cricket World Cup paying $1.36.

This multi will return $7.98 for investers. Please note that Leg 1 starts at 3:30pm so get in quickly!

Horse Racing

A couple of bets this weekend:

Brisbane Race 5: Number 5 Peron

Sydney Race 7: Number 1 Fibrillation (each way)

Melbourne Race 6: Number 4 Royal Haunt

Good luck and good punting!

Shumpty’s Punt: some weekend fancies and a sports multi

February 1, 2013 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , Leave a comment

I have not been punting much of late but have done a fairly close examination of the form this weekend and have a couple of fancies at Doomben and sports multi that I am keen on.

Horse Racing

Doomben

Race 6 Number 2 Doubtful Jack

Race 10 Number 3 Dolly Dolly

Sports Multi

Leg 1: On Saturday in the NBA the Miami Heat to cover the line against the Indiana Pacers (-2.5 points) at $1.92

Leg 2: Also on Saturday in the NBA the New York Knicks to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks at $1.48

Leg 3: In the early hours of Sunday morning in the EPL QPR to defeat Norwich at $1.95

Leg 4: Also in the early hours of Sunday morning in the EPL Arsenal to defeat Stoke at $1.44

Leg 5: Finally it is Super Bowl weekend and it would not be a weekend multi without a Super Bowl bet for Monday morning and in that came I like the San Francisco 49ers to cover the line against the Baltimore Ravens (+3.5 points) at $1.89.

All up this multi will return $15.10 (all odds from sportsbet.com.au).

Good luck and good punting.

Shumpty’s Punt: it’s back!

January 11, 2013 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , , Leave a comment

Well I am sure some of you will say “I told you so” and I concede that I threw the toys out of the cot last year when I stated that I would not be publishing a tipping blog again after a run of terrible form. A new year means a new start and after a couple of nights of study I think I have come up with a couple of bets on the weekend as well as a sports multi-bet that I am confident about.

Racing:

It is Magic Millions Day on the Gold Coast on Saturday and whilst I will not be down there I will have an interest in a couple of races:

Race 5:

Really like the Waterhouse horse Driefontein in this. Not sure the other fancies have much chance from the gates they have drawn and Driefontein has the plum gate of number 3. I expect Tommy Berry to salute here.

Race 6:

In the 2 year old classic no matter how much I look at this race I keep coming back to the mount of L Birchley: Missy Longstocking. Four starts for four wins is the best form you can get and from the 5 gate will get a plumb ride. The money has been for it on Sportsbet.com.au having shortened from $7.50 into $6.50 in early betting.

Race 7:

The Magic Millions Cup is a much tougher race for mine than the 2 year old classic. In this one I have always looked for form at the track as a guide more so than in the 2 year old classic. Combining good form at the track and a good gate is the Hawkes horse Stratford. I think it will win and at $6.50 at the moment is pretty good value.

Race 8:

A shorty in the last for the “get out stakes” I’m Cool. Just can not see anything beating it in this field but if you like this horse I would lock in the $2.60 about it you can get on sports bet right now as I expect it will shorten on the day.

Sports multi-bet

I have a four leg multi for the weekend that I reckon is right on the money and will reap a good return for punters without being spectular.

Leg 1: This evening kicking off at 4pm Brisbane time India at home to defeat England in their ODI fixture at $1.67.

Leg 2: On Saturday morning, in the NBA the Atlanta Hawks to cover the line (-4.0 points) against the Utah Jazz at home at $1.92.

Leg 3: On Sunday morning, in the NFL finals the San Francisco 49ers to cover the line (-3.0 points) against the Green Bay Packers at home at $2.05.

Leg 4: On Monday morning, also in the NFL finals the Atlanta Falcons to cover the line (-3.0 points) against the Seattle Seahawks at home at $2.02.

All up this multi will return $13.28 if it gets up.

Good luck and good punting to all.

A sneaky Thursday multi: Basketball, basketball and more basketball

December 20, 2012 By in Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , Leave a comment

After missing out on a multi collect for the 4th time this year because of the Lakers, I am having another look at a multi today that is focused on the NBA and NCAA.

Here is a 5 legger that I am fairly confident about (all prices are from sportsbet.com.au):

Leg 1: New York Knicks at home to defeat the Brooklyn Nets straight out at $1.39

Leg 2: Indiana Pacers to cover the line (-3.5 points) at home against the Utah Jazz at $1.92.

Leg 3: Toronto Raptors to cover the line (-3.0 points) at home against the Detroit Pistons at $1.92.

Leg 4: Cornell to cover the line (+28.0 points) away against Duke at $1.87.

Leg 5: Louisville to cover the line (-27.5 points) at home against Florida International at $1.90

Combined this multi will pay $18.21 for every dollar invested so will be nice little earner if it comes up.

I also really like Xavier to cover the line (+9.0 points) away against Cincinnati at $1.90 in a cross-town rivalry game that last year ended in a brawl and player suspensions.

As always: good luck and good punting!

Shumpty’s Punt: the weekend multi and a couple of horses to follow

December 7, 2012 By in Shumpty Speaks, Shumpty's Punt Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

After a woeful run on form, the Shumpty’s Punt weekend multi is back this weekend and I hope that the multi to follow will come in and lead to a return for followers. This weekend’s multi is a 7 legger and mixes up some American sport with some fixtures in the Big Bash League in Australia.

As always: all odds are from sportsbet.com.au

Leg 1: Melbourne Stars to defeat the Melbourne Renegades in the BBL tonight. ($1.52)

Leg 2: Connecticut Huskies to cover the line (-9.0 points) against the Harvard Crimson in NCAA Mens Basketball tomorrow morning. ($1.90)

Leg 3: Atlanta Hawks to cover the line (-9.0 points) against the Washington Wizards in the NBA tomorrow morning. ($1.92)

Leg 4: Brooklyn Nets to cover the line (-5.5 points) against the Golden State Warriors in the NBA also tomorrow morning. ($1.92)

Leg 5: Sydney Sixers to defeat the Sydney Thunder in the BBL Saturday night. ($1.52)

Leg 6: Washington Redskins to cover the line (-2.5 points) against the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL in the early hours of Monday morning. ($1.92)

Leg 7: Atlanta Falcons to cover the line (-3.0 points) against the Carolina Panthers in the NFL also in the early hours of Monday morning.

This 7 legger will return $56.86 for every dollar spent so for punters out there is might be worth a little nibble.

Horse racing tomorrow in Brisbane at Eagle Farm and I have couple of each way chances I will be putting my hard earned on:

BR 3:Horse 10 Business Day

BR 4:Horse 1 Playaction

That will do me on the horses for the weekend unless I find something in the southern states that I really fancy tomorrow morning. I will post those tips here if I do come up with any.

Good luck and good punting all.