Bledisloe Cup: Game 2 Keys to Victory

Game 2 of the Bledisloe cup kicks off very shortly and here are my keys to victory:

1. 4th choice fly half?

Tom Taylor comes in at fly half for the All Blacks following injuries to Messrs Carter, Cruden and Barrett. He is a young player who has spent a large part of the domestic season at inside centre. He has been picked ahead of the Highlanders Colin Slade and the Australian’s have been overt in their intention to place as much pressure as possible on him. If he performs well then the All Blacks machine will march on one suspects.

2. O’Connor factor

I mentioned in my keys to victory for the first test that the battle between O’Connor and Smith would be a key to success in that game and so it proved with Smith, frankly, playing O’Connor off the break last time out. One can expect that the All Blacks will direct most of their attack to O’Connor’s wing again and if he is the turnstile he was in the first test match the All Blacks will likely win.

3. The Master v The Apprentice

In my preview last week I dared to question Richie McCaw’s fitness and, yet again, I was proven wrong with Lord McCaw putting on a classic display of ruck and running play. He is the best forward in the game without question at the moment. In the gold jersey opposing him is Michael Hooper: a young man on the rise with a significant reputation as a dynamo at number 7. If Hooper can play to his reputation and best Lord McCaw here that will go a long way to an Australian win. Conversely, a McCaw masterpiece will again rest the game to the All Blacks favour.

4. Battle of the Benches

The bench for the All Blacks is the least experienced it has been for a long time. At the same time the Wallabies have a number of experienced charges to call on in the event of an injury, particularly in the form of Quade Cooper who, one suspects, will play a large part in the second half when the opposition forwards are tired and the gaps are opening up.

This will be another exciting contest and, after the thrashing the All Blacks gave the Wallabies in the first test, the Wallabies will be looking for some redemption and to keep the series alive for the 3d test in October at Forsyth Barr Stadium.

The Ashes: 5th Test, Day 4 Preview

After a slow day at the Oval yesterday, Day 4 beckons with England trailing Australia but some 245 runs with 6 wickets still in hand. There will be another packed house at the Oval desperate to see a contest and to see if England can go past the follow on and press towards a draw. I say draw because it seems like there is no other result open to England in this game. Australian fans in the ground and watching late into the night will obviously be hoping for a more fruitful day.

It is a big day for:

Nathan Lyon: I said yesterday in my preview that it would be a big day for Nathan Lyon on Day 3. Unfortunately he did not get as much bowling as many would have expected however his captain did not deign to bowl him much in the first 50 overs of the innings. He bowled exceptionally well on day 3 and will enjoy a further deteriorated wicket. In order for the pressure that is on him to retain his position that is seemingly on him from selectors, some further players and fans alike he will need to bowl Australia to a dominant position today otherwise that pressure will continue to rise.

Michael Clarke: I questioned some of the tactics of Michael Clarke on day 3 and he will need to show better acumen on the field today in order to lead his team to an improbable victory. Seemingly caught between attack and defence some of his fields were set strangely to say the least. He must show faith in his off spinner today and crowd the bat failing which any semblance of a chance Australia might to win this game will be gone by the lunch adjournment.

Chris Woakes: On debut and arguably batting for a place on upcoming summer tour to Australia Woakes will never have a better opportunity to solidify that spot than on Day 4. The pitch is benign and Australian bowlers are backing up after a long day in the field. Positive intent coupled with quality defence in support of the player of the series for mine, Ian Bell, will see him on the plane to Australia for mine.

What does winning the day look like?

Australia:

It is simple for Australia: they must have England out by lunch time if they are to be any chance of a victory in this game. Any other result on day 4 will constitute a loss for the baggy greens.

England:

Same as yesterday: bat, bat and then bat some more. Forget the “controversy” over the slow batting run rate of the English. There is nothing wrong with batting defensively and, indeed, batting for a draw and England proved on day 3 they can do that. A repeat on day 4 will see this game, in fact, end up a draw.

Talking Points:

All talk will again be around the pitch today. Even the players are getting on the bandwagon (see Joe Root’s interview at the end of yesterday’s play) about the pitch being slow and difficult to score on. No matter how the day pans out here there will still be much discussion around the preparation of the wicket.

Weather Report:

The BBC weather report states as follows:

A cloudy start with some locally heavy rain in places. Becoming brighter through the morning with some sunny intervals developing but also the risk of further showers or thunderstorms. Locally torrential downpours may lead to some localised flooding.

Needless to say it is looking likely that rain will play a part in the days play at some point.

Final Word:

This is the second last day of the first instalment of the Ashes for 2013/14. Both sides can gain much from a good day today. Australia can gain confidence whilst England can get back some momentum. Another interesting day beckons at the Oval.

The Ashes: 5th Test Day 3 Talking Points

It was moving day at the Oval in the 5th and final Ashes test. Unfortunately for Australia the only movement that occurred was backwards as England defied the Australia to end the day 4/247. Here are my talking points from the day:

1. Slow Scoring: Shocker or Tactically Brilliant

Much is being made in the press this morning and was being made on social media last night about the slowness of England’s scoring. Yes scoring at 2.19 runs per over and scoring just over 200 runs in a day constitutes slow scoring but is that approach as shocking as it seems? I say that England’s performance was a brilliant tactical response to the state of the game (they were well behind) and conditions (the forecast is a shocker tomorrow). They knew they could not win but have obviously dug their heels in to ensure that they will not lose. It is a shame that the art of batting for draw has not been seen for such a long time that people know only recognise it as a negative because this was acting for a draw that ought to have been hailed rather than maligned.

2. Captain Cook: all at sea?

Last Ashes series Cook was the dominant player for England with 766 runs in seven innings. This time around for the English captain he has failed to meet expectations and, after another failure on day 3, his return for this series of 243 runs at an average of 27 is as good a marker as any of his lack of form. His dismissal last night was mother one that pointed to a muddled mindset: a Cook in form would have left the ball he knicked and, more to the point, if he had have played it his feet would not have been plugged to the crease. If this form line for the captain of England continues into Australia on the bouncier, faster wickets his form may get worse before it gets better.

3. Captain Clarke: needs to trust his spinner more

I commented on social media, somewhat vociferously I concede, that Clarke’s failure to bowl Nathan Lyon more than 3 overs in the first 50 of England innings was strange tactically and I am sitting here now still scratching those few hairs left on the top of my head. I know this is an Australian line up stacked with fast bowlers however on a pitch clearly designed to take spin with foot marks already available for Lyon bowling to right handers I still think Clarke made a tactical blunder by not bowling his spinner earlier. Then when he did bowl I don’t believe the captain attacked enough with his fields. Given the state of the game, the field that needed to be set had to be based around 4 close fielded around the bat whilst trusting Lyon not to leak runs. At no point did Clarke attack the batters and they were able to play with too much pressure of fielders under their noses.

4. Ryan Harris: Ironman

Playing in his unprecedented 4th test in a row, Harris has again shown why he is in the top handful of bowlers in word cricket when he is fit. With a bustling approach and seeming to hit the bat harder than any other bowler in the game, he consistently hurried batters and bowled some spells of the utmost quality. It was obvious that the batters were more than happy to play him out and then focus on playing the other bowlers and that is the best compliment an opposition can give to a fast bowler.

5. Brad Haddin: the best gloveman in the squad

Brad Haddin’s selection caused some wrinkles on the brow of some fans, particularly those of Victorian origin, however it must be said he has repaid the faith with some excellent work behind the stumps (where his best work should be). He is now in the shadows of Rod Marsh’s long standing world record for dismissals in a test series and, off the back this performance, he would be a worthy holder of the record for mine. Wicketkeepers are to often judged by their work with the willow in the current game so it is good to see a wicketkeeper actually receiving plaudits for his work in his principal job behind the stumps.

It was a slow day of cricket but a day that fans to the test form of the game should recognise as being a tactically brilliant game for the English.

Day 4 will likely be a continuation of the same from England albeit a cursory examination of the weather forecast indicates that it is the weather that could play a bigger role in the outcome of the day.

The Ashes: 5th Test Day 3 Preview

It is day 3 of the 5th test at the Oval with Australia in complete command of the game. Here is my preview of the day to come:

It is a big day for:

Jonathan Trott

Trott has been in woeful form in this series and has found ways to get out that are bizarre, for him, to say the least including edging down the leg side and playing on. This pitch is made for his style of batting and he will need a big score here to get something, aside from being on an Ashes winning team, out of this series.

Nathan Lyon

This pitch has been set up so that it will take spin and, despite the rain yesterday, if certainly looks like it will start taking more and more spin from today. Nathan Lyon has the opportunity to prove many, including the Chairman of Selectors of Australia John Inverarity, wrong and play a leading role in pushing Australia towards victory and also secure his position in the team for the return bout of this series with a strong performance today.

What does winning the day look like?

Australia

A win on day 3 for Australia will hinge on dismissing England for less than the follow on target. If England breach the follow on that the game is going to meander to a draw one suspects.

England

Being still at the crease in their first innings no matter how many wickets are down will be a win for the English. One would expect that if they are still at the crease at the close of play they will have passed the follow on any thoughts of an Australian victory will have waned.

Talking Points:

1. Over rates will on the tip of many tongues today again after England’s go slow tactics yesterday. It is not to Australia’s favour to slow the game down but many eyes will how quickly they get through their overs.

2. There have been no real umpiring dramas as yet in this game so all eyes will be on the men in white and black today.

Weather report

The BBC Weather service gives the following outlook for the weather today in London:

Dry at first with bright or sunny spells. Becoming very warm or hot and feeling especially so in light winds. Into this evening some showery rain is likely and some of this could be on the heavy side.

By the look of it a full day of play will be in the offing for the teams.

Shumpty’s Punt: Weekend Multi and Saturday Specials

Another massive weekend of sport beckons and I have a five leg multi that I am particularly keen on as well as three bets at Eagle Farm that I think will bring a return for punters.

Sports Multi

Leg 1: Wellington to cover the line (-8.5 points) against Taranaki in the ITM Cup ($1.90)

Leg 2: Waikato to cover the line (-7.5 points) against Otago in the ITM Cup ($1.90)

Leg 3: Detroit Tigers to cover the line (-1.5 runs) against the New York Mets in the MLB ($2.01)

Leg 4: Pittsburgh Pirates to defeat the San Fransisco Giants in the MLB ($2.24)

Leg 5: South Africa to cover the line (-13.5 points) against Argentina in the Rugby Championship

This bet will pay $31.20 for each dollar invested. Please note that you have to get this one on by 4pm this (Friday) afternoon.

Horse Racing

All of my best this weekend are at Eagle Farm on Saturday and are as follows:

Race 2: Number 4 Bribie (each way) ($6.00/$2.00)

Race 4: Number 3 Awesome Ransom (win) ($4.00)

Race 7: Number 2 Funtantes (each way) ($9.00/$2.80)

As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Shumpty’s Punt: A Friday Wager

A quick Friday lunch time bet team: I cannot believe the Pittsburgh Pirates are paying $2.21 against the San Francisco Giants in the MLB game kicking off at 12:15pm EST. The Pirates are the top of the NL Central with a record of 74-52 whilst the Giants are coming last in the NL West with a record of 56-70. I know the Giants have their ace on the mound in Matt Cain but his record isn’t that great this year (8-8).

Definitely worth a Friday wager at those odds.

As always: gamble responsibly.