Tomorrow night at 8pm the Ashes series between the old foes, Australia and England, will commence. Everyone, including most Australian fans it seems, think England is going to win. I disagree … in fact I vehemently disagree! Here are my five reasons why I believe Australia will win back the Urn:

England are smug and think they are going to win:

Everything we, as fans, have heard from the pundits from the old dart is that this is the worst Australian team to travel to England since Federation and that the Australians have no chance of winning. The last time we heard such punditary from those apparent experts was in 1989 when Australia travelled to England with a squad the performance of which hinged on a new opening pairing, an allrounder without a hundred in 5 years of test cricket, an inexperienced ‘keeper and a bowling attack that mixed some old stagers (Alderman and Lawson) and an under pressure spinner (Hohns). Sound familiar? The main reason I think we will win is because the English think they will win and that approach has failed them in the past.

Is Australia’s form that bad?

OK: it is obvious that Australia’s form in Test Cricket coming into this series is not great. A 4-0 loss to India in India does not make for pretty reading. However is England’s form any more compelling? Yes they defeated New Zealand at home 2-0 but before that they did not manage a win in a three test tour against New Zealand away. All due respect to the New Zealand team that is hardly a sparkling form line itself. Before that both teams lost a series the South Africans. Of course England did perform brilliantly in India it must be conceded.

Swann v Lyon

I have written in detail about the strengths of Nathan Lyon and the fact that he is a key component in this Australian team. On the other side of the fence is Graeme Swann. Let me be clear at the outset here: I think Swann is world class. That said, his record against Australia is less than impressive. In the two series between the teams he has participated in he has taken 29 wickets at an average of 40. Last time Australia was in England he returned a less than impressive 14 wickets at 40.50 with an economy rate of 3.32 per over which is 1.22 per over higher than his economy rate for his career. Australia needs to attack Swann: England have been at their best in recent times when they have him holding up one end and drying up runs while their fast bowlers rotate up the other end. Despite Australia’s poor form against spin in India, if they attack Swann and hit him off his game that will go a long way to a win. We have to get out of the mindest that he is anything like the Indian spinners: he is not and these are not Indian wickets!

The era of Boof:

Darren Lehmann’s installation as coach of the Australian cricket can only be a positive. Simply put, Lehmann is a coach who lifted the Queensland Bulls Sheffield Shield team to two finals in two years with a player list that Cricket Australia does not deign to believe contains a test match player. Lehmann knows what it takes to win and has a history of building harmonious high performing units which it was clear the old regime was not. He is also a coach that presents as getting the best out of Shane Watson who will have a large part to play in Australia’s possible success.

Psychological warfare:

Jimmy Anderson has come out during the week and suggested that he has added sledging to his armoury. Australia has seemed to try to bring such warfare to recent performances in a somewhat hamfisted and unsuccessful way. The “Davey Warner” method of sledging and physical confrontation MUST stop! Australia needs to take a leaf out of the book of the 1989 and 1993 teams: when (if) they get on top in any of these tests and in the series they need to put the metaphorical foot on the throat of England and press down hard. I always remember the story of Allan Border in the 1993 series batting into a 3rd day to push Australia’s score over 650 just to “add to their mental disintegration”. If Australia win the mental battle they will win the series.

There is only one sleep to go before the Ashes start: it is time for Australian fans to mobilise behind our team. The fact is we can win and I think we will.

I have my supplies for the series at the ready (coffee, protein shakes and red bull), the batteries are about to be taken out of the remote control and I have banked up a heap of extra sleep to get me through. It is go time people! Let’s get our urn back!