Well the rankings for the finals in Super Rugby have now been finalised and the first week of the finals will see the following games being played:
Brumbies v Cheetahs, Canberra Stadium (Sunday night)
Crusaders v Reds, Christchurch (Saturday night)
Both present as cracking contests. Look out for my preview on pinkrugby.com later in the week.
It was the first and last round of Super Rugby for Australian teams this weekend and based on the performances I have seen from the two Australian teams in this round I have to say that I hold real fears that neither of them will get past the first week of the finals.
I watched the Reds take on the Waratahs live and have watched the reply of the Brumbies game against the Force this morning. Now I concede that neither team was at full strength but equally neither team looked anything like the cohesive and in form units that had taken the field in the week before the break in play enforced by the British and Irish Lions tour.
The fact is that before this weekend, and excluding Lions tour trial fixtures, the last time the Reds and Brumbies played in the Super Rugby competition was 42 days and 36 days ago respectively. Both teams had significant representation in the Wallabies squad for the Lions series and thus have been without their core of players for the bulk of that period and, indeed, remain without them.
I have no clue what training the teams did whilst the 5/6 weeks break between Super Rugby fixtures took place but it is impossible to countenance that all the teams did during this period was train. Further, no matter “game like” training is it can be no substitute for match play.
I, for one, can not think of a more disjointed preparation for a finals campaign than that which has been expected of the Reds and Brumbies. The difficulty with such a campaign imposed on those franchises is all the more galling given that the New Zealand and South African teams that are playing in the finals will have had three games together following their international breaks of three weeks to tune up for the finals.
Don’t get me wrong here: I understand how important the quadrennial tours of the Lions are to the coffers of SANZAR and the host nation. These tours are needed to boost the finances of the governing bodies dealing with declining fan numbers and participation. That said, the length of time that the Australian franchises have had to wait to return to Super Rugby play and, more particularly, the lack of time given for the teams participating in the finals to get time back together on the field is nothing short of an abomination and, in my opinion, totally inequitable.
Hopefully playing together this week will assist the Reds and Brumbies in the preparation for next week. Frankly though, if both teams put in a similarly disjointed and, suddenly, out of form performances as they did this week then there is a real prospect that we could be seeing a New Zealand and a South African semi-final in week two of the finals.
It is the last round of Super Rugby before the finals this week and the final six has already been decided BUT who will play who in the finals? Here is my preview first published on pinkrugby.com http://pinkrugby.com/2013/super-rugby-predictions-2013-rd-20
Can’t wait for this final round!
Another weekend means another festivus of sports and punting. This weekend I have a four leg multi that I am particularly keen on as well as a couple of horses that I think have the potential to run well. As always: gamble responsibly, whilst I take all care with these tips I take no responsibility if they are unsuccessful and prices are accurate from Sportsbet.com.au at the time of posting.
Horse Racing
Brisbane Race 3 Number 5 Thefifthole (each way) ($6.50 / $2.30)
Melbourne Race 6 Number 9 Happy Galaxy (win) ($3.50)
Sydney Race 2 Number 4 Short Shift (win) ($2.10)
Sports Multi
Leg 1: Chiefs to cover the line (-6.5 points) against the Blues in Super Rugby at $1.92
Leg 2: Reds to cover the line (+2.5 points) against the Waratahs in Super Rugby at $1.92
Leg 3: Essendon to defeat the Western Bulloggs by 40 or more points in the AFL at $1.86
Leg 4: Manly to cover the line (-7.5 points) against North Queensland in NRL at $1.90
This multi will return $13.02 for every dollar invested and in the interests of full disclosure I have wagered $25 on this multi.
Good luck and good punting everyone! Bring on the sport!
There is one round to go before the finals and as matters presently stand the Super Rugby table looks like this:
Given that the Cheetahs have a bye in round 20 they are guaranteed of a spot in the finals and thus all other of the other teams not already in the top 6 are simply playing for pride this week. That said they make up of the final six is by no means final and there are a number of fixtures that could have a large impact who is playing whom in the first week. Those games are:
Crusaders v Hurricanes
Blues v Chiefs
Waratahs v Reds
Force v Brumbies
Stormers v Bulls
Obviously at this juncture it is important to reflect on how the qualification process for the finals works in Super Rugby. Rule 3.5.2 of the Tournament rules provides:
Six teams will qualify for the Finals Series at the conclusion of the Regular Season as follows:
a) Conference Winners: the team in each of the AC, NZC and SAC with the highest number of competition points will be the Conference Winner for the respective Conference and will qualify for the Finals Series.
The three Conference Winners will receive a Finals Series Ranking as follows:
(i) The team with the highest number of competition points will have a Finals Series Ranking of 1;
(ii)The team with the second highest number of competition points will have a Finals Series Ranking of 2;
(iii) The team with the third highest number of competition points will have a Finals Series Ranking of 3.b) Wildcard Teams: the remaining three Finals Series places will be allocated to the three non-Conference Winning teams with the highest number of Super Rugby table competition points regardless of the Conference in which the team plays. The three Wildcard Teams will receive a Finals Series Ranking as follows:
(i) The team with the highest number of competition points will have a Finals Series Ranking of 4;
(ii)The team with the second highest number of competition points will have a Finals Series Ranking of 5;
(iii) The team with the third highest number of competition points will have a Finals Series Ranking of 6.
With so many games having any impact on the ultimate positions of those teams in the top six, it is impossible to forecast all of the available permeations. I know this because I put my meagre skills in excel to the task of running such a model and failed dismally. That said: there are some outcomes that it is quite simple to map:
• The Cheetahs will definitely be travelling next week. They will end up on 54 points with a points differential of plus 24. The best they can finish is 5th which will occur if the Reds loose to the Waratahs and do not pick up a bonus point. If the Reds draw or win or lose but secure a bonus point the Cheetahs will finish 6th.
• A loss for the Reds will see them finish 6th on the table. A bonus point loss or a draw will see the Reds finish 5th regardless of the result of the Crusaders game against the Hurricanes. For the Reds to end up finishing 4th and hosting one of the qualifying finals next week they need, simply, the Crusaders to loose and for them to win. If the Crusaders win against the Hurricanes they will end up 5th in any non-loss scenario.
• The Crusaders, at this stage, have at least 5th place locked up and they will only end up there if the Reds win and they lose. A Crusaders draw or win against the Hurricanes will lock up 4th spot at least. The plight of the Crusaders, however, gets very interesting if they win against the Hurricanes with a bonus point. This result would place them above the Chiefs for the NZ conference on for and against. Thus if the Chiefs fail to get any points against the Blues there is a possibility that the Crusaders could win the conference.
• The Brumbies locked up the Australian conference some weeks ago. Even if they were to loose without a bonus point, the Reds would need to defeat the Waratahs by at least 100 points to jump them on the table. In play though for the Brumbies is the prospect of having the first week of the finals off: that scenario could arise if either of the Chiefs or Bulls loose and the Brumbies win. Indeed, there is a possibility that the Brumbies could end up with home field advantage throughout the finals if both of the Bulls and the Chiefs loose.
• The Chiefs only need to secure a point from their fixture against the Blues to secure the New Zealand conference. As I have noted above there is a mathematical chance that the Crusaders could jump over them and take the New Zealand conference. If the Chiefs were to loose but gain a bonus point or were to draw against the Blues there is a prospect that they could finish 3rd and thus have to play in a qualifying final next week if the Brumbies were to win. Of course, there is also the prospect that the Chiefs could finish the top of the table if they win and the Bulls loose.
• The Bulls presently lead the competition and are in the box seat for home ground advantage for the whole of the finals. That said, they still could finish 3rd overall and have to play in the first week of the finals if they loose to the Stormers and do not secure a bonus point and both the Chiefs and the Brumbies win. If the Bulls win however, or draw and the Chiefs win by fail to garner a bonus point, the Bulls will finish atop the ladder. Of course the other scenario that presents itself here is that the Chiefs win but the Bulls loose. In that scenario the Chiefs would go top and the Bulls would end up 2nd.
All in all, these permeations set up for a fascinating last round of Super Rugby this season.
So once all of the final rankings are determined, what happens in the finals? Rule 3.6 of the Tournament rules is instructive and provides that the teams for the week 1 qualifiers will be determined as follows:
Match A – Rank 4 v Rank 5
Match B – Rank 3 v Rank 6
The higher ranking team will receive home ground advantage which is why the Cheetahs only have the prospect of travelling in week 1 of the finals. As matters stand presently any of the conference winning teams could end up hosting a final in final’s week one and either of the Crusaders or the Reds could have the opportunity to host the other finals.
Is anyone else excited about the week of Super Rugby that awaits us?
Have had a close look at the form for this weekend and here are my bets. As always please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford.
Multi Bet:
Leg 1: Brisbane Lions to defeat the Gold Coast Suns in the AFL ($1.55)
Leg 2: Hurricanes to cover the line against the Highlanders (-9.5 points) in Super Rugby ($1.90)
Leg 3: Canberra Raiders to cover the line against the NQ Cowboys (-4.5 points) in the NRL ($1.92)
Leg 4: Bulls to cover the line against the Sharks (-6.5 points) in Super Rugby ($1.90)
Leg 5: Nico Rosberg to be on the podium in the German Grand Prix ($2.50)
All up this multi will pay $26.85 for every dollar invested (prices are from Sportsbet.com.au) and I have invested $25.
Horse Racing:
Eagle Farm:
Race 3 Number 10 Avaladyluck (Win)
Race 7 Number 3 Griffon (Each Way)
Rosehill:
Race 2 Number 7 Rebel Dancer (Each Way)
Flemington:
Race 5 Number 3 Riziz (Win)
Good luck and good punting!
Shumpty Speaks 