Intuition: is it just hindsight in disguise?

A brief exchange this morning on twitter people showing their true colours and ones intuition being proven correct has gotten me thinking about intuition and how we use it, or indeed ignore it, in our daily lives.

Wikipedia tells us (and if it good enough for a member of Australia’s parliament it must be good enough for me as a source) that:

Intuition is the ability to acquire knowledge without inference and/or the use of reason. The word intuition comes from Latin verb intueri which is usually translated as to look inside or to contemplate. Intuition is thus often conceived as a kind of inner perception, sometimes regarded as real lucidity or understanding.

Put another way it is one’s metaphorical “gut instinct” about something.

Herein lies the conundrum for me when it comes to the concept of intuition: if it exists and we all have it why do not use it more in our decision making? I will pose this another way: the excellent detective work of Special Agent Gibbs on NCIS which oft revolves around his famous “gut” aside, when was the last time you or anyone you know, as far as you are aware, made a decision the first moment your intuition directed you, or them, in that way?

Conversely, when have you reached a decision and then reflected on that decision and exclaimed that you intuitively knew that decision was the one you had to make months ago but didn’t until another “thing” (be it conduct or data) arose to push you in that direction?

I know from my personal experience that in both my personal and work life the later of these two scenarios is what always plays out. That realisation got me thinking about whether intuition is really just our brains wrapping up hindsight into a different package. Put another way: if we make a decision and then say “well intuitively I knew I would be doing this” is that not just hindsight?

I readily concede that my brain plays tricks on me more than most so it is entirely possible that what I often think is intuition albeit discovered after the fact is indeed hindsight. However I am not sure that it possible to consider this point in the absolutes I am positing.

Additionally, another tangent that comes to mind here is whether intuition is merely a manifestation of experience. I know, for example, when I am put on a new engagement at work that I will have a pretty clear idea of how the investigation of the affairs of that particular entity is going to go right from the start and what I am going to find. Is that my intuition or the 14 years of experience I have guiding me? Or is it both?

I find this concept fascinating but concede that perhaps I am too wrapped in labels or wanting to be more Special Agent Gibbs than Sherlock Holmes (who famously exclaimed “Data!!! I can not make bricks without clay”).

I do know this to be true though: if I had have trusted what I believe to be intuition in some decisions I delayed making life may be significantly different. Then again: is that just hindsight talking?

Poetry: The Splendor Falls by Lord Tennyson

The splendor falls on castle walls
And snowy summits old in story;
The long light shakes across the lakes,
And the wild cataract leaps in glory.
Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying
Blow, bugle; answers, echoes, dying, dying, dying.

O hark, O hear! how thin and clear,
And thinner, clearer, farther going!
O sweet and far from cliff and scar
The horns of Elfland faintly blowing!
Blow, let us hear the purple glens replying;
Blow, bugle; answer, echoes, dying, dying, dying.

O love, they die in yon rich sky,
They faint on hill or field or river;
Our echoes roll from soul to soul,
And grow forever and forever.
Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying,
And answer, echoes, answer, dying, dying,dying

Shumpty’s Punt: Thursday Multi

It is the first game of the World Series in the MLB at Fenway Park today. Here is my multi for today’s sporting fixtures:

Leg 1: Detroit Redwings to defeat the Ottawa Senators in the NHL ($1.70)

Leg 2: In the first game of the World Series in the MLB the Boston Red Sox to win with the total game score less than 7.5 runs ($3.30)

Leg 3: Boston Bruins to cover the line (-1.5 goals) against the Buffalo Sabres in the NHL ($2.90)

This multi will pay $16.27 for every dollar invested.

As always, please gamble responsibly.

James Sutherland: Ricky Ponting’s damning assessment

Ricky Ponting has been quoted (in an excellent article by Dan Brettig on the Cricinfo site) thusly when discussing Cricket Australia and the work of James Sutherland in a recent interview discussing his upcoming autobiography:

“Business-wise and the last couple years in particular you’d say CA has done a really good job with making the BBL the success they have and other things they’ve done,” Ponting said. “But it’s been at the detriment of something else. State cricket’s funding and coaches that work with them.”

AND

“But there was no foresight at all into where we were going. Buck was always ridiculed for asking for things. He saw where the game was going to go, and all the stuff that came out with the Argus review was the stuff Buck was talking about 10 years ago, and he was shut down and almost pushed out of his job because of where he thought the game was going to go.”

AND

“My view on selection is you only ever make a change if it’s going to make the team better,” he said. “A lot of the changes we made didn’t make the team better, and I don’t care what anybody says. The coach (Tim Nielsen) going when he did didn’t make the team better. I think a lot of the stuff that happened with the Argus review was premeditated stuff that was already in the pipeline and they put this panel together to justify it.”

Ponting has also quoted Sutherland as telling him in 2011 that:

“no one ever spends money when they are going well”

These sentiments, from Australia’s most recent great of the game and probably a batsman second only to Tendulkar in his standing in the game in this generation, are a stinging indictment on the administrators of the game in this country and, principally, the man at the top. I, and many others on social media and the blogsphere, have been calling for change in the administrative side of the game in this country and, particularly, for James Sutherland to be held account for the failings of the Australian Cricket team performance wise.

A CEO must be held accountable for the performance of his (or her) business. Anyone in the business world will tell you that financial results are important but are only one metric to be considered when judging a CEO’s performance. Whilst Sutherland has succeeded on the profitability metric can anyone tell me another metric he has succeeded on of late? The Australian Cricket team is NOT performing. The second tier of cricket in this country is a shambles and is not producing players who are capable of performing at the top level. Both of which must come back to the lack of forsight complained of by Ponting and as indicated in Sutherland’s own views.

A change MUST be made!