Shumpty’s Punt: Manikato Stakes Night

It is a massive night of racing tonight from Mooney Valley. Here are my tips for this Friday night at the races:

Race 1: Tanah Lot (Number 6)
Race 2: Dance for Cash (Number 5)
Race 3: Federica (Number 3) (Best Roughie) (each way)
Race 4: Holy Cow (Number 13)
Race 5: Rifleman (Number 8)
Race 6: Queenstown (Number 4) (Best Bet)
Race 7: Lord Durante (Number 2)
Race 8: Buffering (Number 2)

This is a great lead in meeting to the Cox Plate tomorrow. As always: please gamble responsibly!

Intuition: is it just hindsight in disguise?

A brief exchange this morning on twitter people showing their true colours and ones intuition being proven correct has gotten me thinking about intuition and how we use it, or indeed ignore it, in our daily lives.

Wikipedia tells us (and if it good enough for a member of Australia’s parliament it must be good enough for me as a source) that:

Intuition is the ability to acquire knowledge without inference and/or the use of reason. The word intuition comes from Latin verb intueri which is usually translated as to look inside or to contemplate. Intuition is thus often conceived as a kind of inner perception, sometimes regarded as real lucidity or understanding.

Put another way it is one’s metaphorical “gut instinct” about something.

Herein lies the conundrum for me when it comes to the concept of intuition: if it exists and we all have it why do not use it more in our decision making? I will pose this another way: the excellent detective work of Special Agent Gibbs on NCIS which oft revolves around his famous “gut” aside, when was the last time you or anyone you know, as far as you are aware, made a decision the first moment your intuition directed you, or them, in that way?

Conversely, when have you reached a decision and then reflected on that decision and exclaimed that you intuitively knew that decision was the one you had to make months ago but didn’t until another “thing” (be it conduct or data) arose to push you in that direction?

I know from my personal experience that in both my personal and work life the later of these two scenarios is what always plays out. That realisation got me thinking about whether intuition is really just our brains wrapping up hindsight into a different package. Put another way: if we make a decision and then say “well intuitively I knew I would be doing this” is that not just hindsight?

I readily concede that my brain plays tricks on me more than most so it is entirely possible that what I often think is intuition albeit discovered after the fact is indeed hindsight. However I am not sure that it possible to consider this point in the absolutes I am positing.

Additionally, another tangent that comes to mind here is whether intuition is merely a manifestation of experience. I know, for example, when I am put on a new engagement at work that I will have a pretty clear idea of how the investigation of the affairs of that particular entity is going to go right from the start and what I am going to find. Is that my intuition or the 14 years of experience I have guiding me? Or is it both?

I find this concept fascinating but concede that perhaps I am too wrapped in labels or wanting to be more Special Agent Gibbs than Sherlock Holmes (who famously exclaimed “Data!!! I can not make bricks without clay”).

I do know this to be true though: if I had have trusted what I believe to be intuition in some decisions I delayed making life may be significantly different. Then again: is that just hindsight talking?

Poetry: The Splendor Falls by Lord Tennyson

The splendor falls on castle walls
And snowy summits old in story;
The long light shakes across the lakes,
And the wild cataract leaps in glory.
Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying
Blow, bugle; answers, echoes, dying, dying, dying.

O hark, O hear! how thin and clear,
And thinner, clearer, farther going!
O sweet and far from cliff and scar
The horns of Elfland faintly blowing!
Blow, let us hear the purple glens replying;
Blow, bugle; answer, echoes, dying, dying, dying.

O love, they die in yon rich sky,
They faint on hill or field or river;
Our echoes roll from soul to soul,
And grow forever and forever.
Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying,
And answer, echoes, answer, dying, dying,dying

Shumpty’s Punt: Thursday Multi

It is the first game of the World Series in the MLB at Fenway Park today. Here is my multi for today’s sporting fixtures:

Leg 1: Detroit Redwings to defeat the Ottawa Senators in the NHL ($1.70)

Leg 2: In the first game of the World Series in the MLB the Boston Red Sox to win with the total game score less than 7.5 runs ($3.30)

Leg 3: Boston Bruins to cover the line (-1.5 goals) against the Buffalo Sabres in the NHL ($2.90)

This multi will pay $16.27 for every dollar invested.

As always, please gamble responsibly.